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Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.


ABSTRACT: Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

SUBMITTER: Howard C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10359363 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

Howard Christine C   Marjakangas Emma-Liina EL   Morán-Ordóñez Alejandra A   Milanesi Pietro P   Abuladze Aleksandre A   Aghababyan Karen K   Ajder Vitalie V   Arkumarev Volen V   Balmer Dawn E DE   Bauer Hans-Günther HG   Beale Colin M CM   Bino Taulant T   Boyla Kerem Ali KA   Burfield Ian J IJ   Burke Brian B   Caffrey Brian B   Chodkiewicz Tomasz T   Del Moral Juan Carlos JC   Mazal Vlatka Dumbovic VD   Fernández Néstor N   Fornasari Lorenzo L   Gerlach Bettina B   Godinho Carlos C   Herrando Sergi S   Ieronymidou Christina C   Johnston Alison A   Jovicevic Mihailo M   Kalyakin Mikhail M   Keller Verena V   Knaus Peter P   Kotrošan Dražen D   Kuzmenko Tatiana T   Leitão Domingos D   Lindström Åke Å   Maxhuni Qenan Q   Mihelič Tomaž T   Mikuska Tibor T   Molina Blas B   Nagy Károly K   Noble David D   Øien Ingar Jostein IJ   Paquet Jean-Yves JY   Pladevall Clara C   Portolou Danae D   Radišić Dimitrije D   Rajkov Saša S   Rajković Draženko Z DZ   Raudonikis Liutauras L   Sattler Thomas T   Saveljić Darko D   Shimmings Paul P   Sjenicic Jovica J   Šťastný Karel K   Stoychev Stoycho S   Strus Iurii I   Sudfeldt Christoph C   Sultanov Elchin E   Szép Tibor T   Teufelbauer Norbert N   Uzunova Danka D   van Turnhout Chris A M CAM   Velevski Metodija M   Vikstrøm Thomas T   Vintchevski Alexandre A   Voltzit Olga O   Voříšek Petr P   Wilk Tomasz T   Zurell Damaris D   Brotons Lluís L   Lehikoinen Aleksi A   Willis Stephen G SG  

Nature communications 20230720 1


Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of l  ...[more]

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