Dataset Information

Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Of the eight large (>50 cases) US postelimination outbreaks, the first and last occurred in Ohio. Ohio's vaccination registry is incomplete. Community-level immunity gaps threaten more than two decades of measles elimination in the US. We developed a statistical model, VaxEstim, to rapidly estimate the early-phase vaccination coverage and immunity gap in the exposed population during the 2022 Central Ohio outbreak.

Methods

We used reconstructed daily incidence (from publicly available data) and assumptions about the distribution of the serial interval, or the time between symptom onset in successive measles cases, to estimate the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a partially immune population). We estimated early-phase measles vaccination coverage by comparing the effective reproduction number to the basic reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a fully susceptible population) while accounting for vaccine effectiveness. Finally, we estimated the early-phase immunity gap as the difference between the estimated critical vaccination threshold and vaccination coverage.

Findings

VaxEstim estimated the early-phase vaccination coverage as 53% (95% credible interval, 21%-77%), the critical vaccination threshold as 93%, and the immunity gap as 42% (95% credible interval, 18%-74%).

Interpretation

This study estimates a significant immunity gap in the exposed population during the early phase of the 2022 Central Ohio measles outbreak, suggesting a robust public health response is needed to identify the susceptible community and develop community-specific strategies to close the immunity gap.

Funding

This work was supported in part by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, National Institutes of Health; the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology; Imperial College London, and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Community Jameel; the EDCTP2 programme, supported by the EU; and the Sergei Brin Foundation.

SUBMITTER: Martoma RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10366459 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study.

Martoma Rosemary A RA Washam Matthew M Martoma Joshua C JC Cori Anne A Majumder Maimuna S MS

Lancet regional health. Americas 20230627

<h4>Background</h4>Of the eight large (>50 cases) US postelimination outbreaks, the first and last occurred in Ohio. Ohio's vaccination registry is incomplete. Community-level immunity gaps threaten more than two decades of measles elimination in the US. We developed a statistical model, VaxEstim, to rapidly estimate the early-phase vaccination coverage and immunity gap in the exposed population during the 2022 Central Ohio outbreak.<h4>Methods</h4>We used reconstructed daily incidence (from pub ...[more]

PMID: 37497395

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Project description:IntroductionMeasles elimination depends on the successful deployment of measles containing vaccine. Vaccination programs often depend on a combination of routine and non-routine services, including supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) and vaccination weeks (VWs), that both aim to vaccinate all eligible children regardless of vaccination history or natural infection. Madagascar has used a combination of these activities to improve measles coverage. However, ongoing massive measles outbreak suggests that the country was in a "honeymoon" period and that coverage achieved needs to be re-evaluated. Although healthcare access is expected to vary seasonally in low resources settings, little evidence exists to quantify temporal fluctuations in routine vaccination, and interactions with other immunization activities.MethodsWe used three data sources: national administrative data on measles vaccine delivery from 2013 to 2016, digitized vaccination cards from 49 health centers in 6 health districts, and a survey of health workers. Data were analyzed using linear regressions, analysis of variance, and t-tests.FindingsFrom 2013 to 2016, the footprint of SIAs and VWs is apparent, with more doses distributed during the relevant timeframes. Routine vaccination decreases in subsequent months, suggesting that additional activities may be interfering with routine services. The majority of missed vaccination opportunities occur during the rainy season. Health facility organization and shortage of vaccine contributed to vaccination gaps. Children born in June were the least likely to be vaccinated on time.DiscussionEvidence that routine vaccination coverage varies over the year and is diminished by other activities suggests that maintaining routine vaccination during SIAs and VWs is a key direction for strengthening immunization programs, ensuring population immunity and avoiding future outbreaks.FundingWellcome Trust Fund, Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

Project description:BackgroundRecent outbreaks of measles and polio in low-income countries illustrate that conventional methods for estimating vaccination coverage do not adequately identify susceptible children. Immune markers of protection against vaccine-preventable diseases in oral fluid (OF) or blood may generate more accurate measures of effective vaccination history, but questions remain about whether antibody surveys are feasible and informative tools for monitoring immunization program performance compared to conventional vaccination coverage indicators. This study compares six indicators of measles vaccination status, including immune markers in oral fluid and blood, from children in rural Bangladesh and evaluates the implications of using each indicator to estimate measles vaccination coverage.MethodsA cross-sectional population-based study of children ages 12-16 months in Mirzapur, Bangladesh, ascertained measles vaccination (MCV1) history from conventional indicators: maternal report, vaccination card records, 'card+history' and EPI clinic records. Oral fluid from all participants (n=1226) and blood from a subset (n=342) were tested for measles IgG antibodies as indicators of MCV1 history and compared to conventional MCV1 coverage indicators.ResultsMaternal report yielded the highest MCV1 coverage estimates (90.8%), followed by EPI records (88.6%), and card+history (84.2%). Seroprotection against measles by OF (57.3%) was significantly lower than other indicators, even after adjusting for incomplete seroconversion and assay performance (71.5%). Among children with blood results, 88.6% were seroprotected, which was significantly higher than coverage by card+history and OF serostatus but consistent with coverage by maternal report and EPI records. Children with vaccination cards or EPI records were more likely to have a history of receiving MCV1 than those without cards or records. Despite similar MCV1 coverage estimates across most indicators, within-child agreement was poor for all indicators.ConclusionsMeasles IgG antibodies in OF was not a suitable immune marker for monitoring measles vaccination coverage in this setting. Because agreement between conventional MCV1 indicators was mediocre, immune marker surveillance with blood samples could be used to validate conventional MCV1 indicators and generate adjusted results that can be compared across indicators.

Project description:BackgroundA measles outbreak occurred in a western county of China in 2013, the year after China's historic nadir of measles. We conducted a field investigation to identify gaps in measles vaccination coverage and immunization program weaknesses, and to provide recommendations for measles outbreak response and immunization program improvement.MethodsWe analyzed surveillance data from 2008 to 2013 to describe the measles epidemiology of the county. Measles-containing vaccine coverage was estimated using two methods: previously-reported administrative coverage and an estimation of coverage by clinic-kept vaccination records (n = 542). We conducted a rapid field coverage assessment in a migrant population village to evaluate coverage after emergency vaccination. We conducted a review of hospital records of measles cases to address the role hospital transmission played during the early stage of this outbreak.ResultsThere were 153 cases in the outbreak, primarily among children too young to vaccinate, unvaccinated children less than 3 years old, and adults. Measles-containing vaccine coverage by the field assessment showed that 20% of children aged 8-17 months had zero doses, and 9% of ≥2 years old children had fewer than two doses. The vaccination statuses of all adult cases were either zero doses or unknown. At least 61% of cases had been hospitalized. The proportion of cases who had been hospital-exposed 7 to 21 days prior to rash onset decreased from 52% to 22% after hospitals strengthen their isolation measures.ConclusionsThis outbreak was a result of measles vaccination coverage gaps among young children and adults, and insufficient hospital isolation of cases. The lower coverage seen in the field estimation compared with reported coverage showed that reported coverage could have been overestimated. Hospitals were sites of transmission in the early stage of the outbreak. A strict hospital isolation policy could decrease spread of measles. Emergency vaccination was associated with stopping measles transmission in low coverage areas.

Project description:Background:There is a global resurgence of measles, consequent upon worldwide stagnating measles vaccination coverage. The study aim was to document trends and characteristics of reported cases of measles, measles-related deaths, and measles vaccination coverage (MCV1-first dose of measles-containing vaccine and MCV2-second dose of measles-containing vaccine) at national and sub-national level in Myanmar over a five year period between 2014 and 2018. Methods:This was a descriptive study using routine data collected and submitted to the Expanded Programme on Immunization. Results:Between 2014 and 2018, there were 2673 measles cases of which 2272 (85%) occurred in 2017 and 2018. Five adjacent regions in lower Myanmar were the most affected: in 2017 and 2018, these regions reported 1647 (73%) of the 2272 measles cases in the country. Overall, 73% of measles cases were laboratory confirmed, 21% were epidemiologically linked, and 6% were clinically compatible (clinical diagnosis only), with more laboratory confirmed cases in recent years. Annual measles-related deaths were either zero or one except in 2016 when there were 21 deaths, all occurring in one remote village. In the recent years, the most commonly affected age groups were 0-8 months, 9 months to 4 years, and ??15 years. Among 1907 measles cases with known vaccination status, only 22% had been vaccinated and 70% of those had only received one dose of vaccine. Annual MCV1 coverage nationally varied from 83 to 93% while annual MCV2 coverage nationally varied from 78 to 87%, with no clear trends over the years. Between 2014 and 2018, a high proportion of the 330 townships had MCV coverage <?95%. Over 80% of measles cases were reported from townships that had MCV coverage <?95%. Conclusion:There have been a large number of measles cases in recent years associated with sub-optimal measles vaccine coverage. Myanmar has already conducted supplemental immunization activities in October and November, 2019. Myanmar also needs to improve routine immunization services and targeted responses to measles outbreaks.

Project description:ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to assess the determinants of BCG vaccination in Ethiopia from 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS).SettingSince Ethiopia has nine regional states and two administrative cities, sample was taken from all the divisions. The population-based sample was intended to provide estimates of key indicators for the country.ParticipantThe sampling frame used for the 2016 EDHS is the Ethiopia Population and Housing Census. From 15 683 women recorded in EDHS dataset, women with no child (n=10 379) were excluded from the study. Therefore, the total sample size for this study was 5304 women. The outcome variable was BCG immunisation status of children.ResultOut of the study participants (n=5304), the majority were in between 20 and 34 years of age (73.8%). The median age of the respondents was 28.4 (SD=±6.5) years old. Prevalence of BCG vaccination was 63.6% (n=3373) and BCG vaccination coverage in urban residents was higher (88%) than rural residents (57.3%). Mothers' age between 20 up to 34 (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.48; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.93) and between 35 up to 49 (AOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.46) were more likely to vaccinate their child's than those mothers' age less than 20. Mothers settled in urban areas were two times more likely to vaccinate their child's than those living in rural areas (AOR=1.94; 95% CI: 1.45 to 2.60). Mothers with greater antenatal visits show higher BCG vaccination, Antenatal Care (ANC) 4 and above (AOR=3.48; 95% CI: 2.91 to 4.15). BCG vaccination is higher for mothers delivered at non-governmental organisation health facility than home (AOR=2.9; 95% CI: 1.69 to 4.96). Maternal occupation and wealth index also had a significant association with BCG vaccination.ConclusionBCG vaccination coverage, in this study, was lower and determinant factors for BCG vaccination were residence, mother's age, place of delivery, mother's antenatal visit, wealth index and mother's occupation.

Project description:BackgroundThe reported coverage of the measles-rubella (MR) or measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine is greater than 99.0% in Zhejiang province. However, the incidence of measles, mumps, and rubella remains high. In this study, we assessed MMR seropositivity and disease distribution by age on the basis of the current vaccination program, wherein the first dose of MR is administered at 8 months and the second dose of MMR is administered at 18-24 months.MethodsCross-sectional serological surveys of MMR antibodies were conducted by collecting epidemiological data in Zhejiang province, China in 2011. In total, 1015 participants were randomly selected from two surveillance sites. Serum MMR-specific immunoglobulin G levels were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The geometric mean titers and seroprevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by age and gender. Proportions of different dose of vaccine by age by vaccine were also identified. Statistically significant differences between categories were assessed by the Chi-square test.ResultsOver 95% seroprevalence rates of measles were seen in all age groups except <7 months infants. Children aged 5-9 years were shown lower seropositivity rates of mumps while elder adolescences and young adults were presented lower rubella seroprevalence. Especially, rubella seropositivity was significantly lower in female adults than in male. Nine measles cases were unvaccinated or unknown vaccination history. Among them, 66.67% (6/9) patients were aged 20-29 years while 33.33% (3/9) were infants aged 8-12 months. In addition, 57.75% (648/1122) patients with mumps were children aged 5-9 years, and 50.54% (94/186) rubella cases were aged 15-39 years.ConclusionsA timely two-dose MMR vaccination schedule is recommended, with the first dose at 8 months and the second dose at 18-24 months. An MR vaccination speed-up campaign may be necessary for elder adolescents and young adults, particularly young females.

Dataset Information

Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study.

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