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Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities.

ABSTRACT: Permafrost thawing and the potential 'lab leak' of ancient microorganisms generate risks of biological invasions for today's ecological communities, including threats to human health via exposure to emergent pathogens. Whether and how such 'time-travelling' invaders could establish in modern communities is unclear, and existing data are too scarce to test hypotheses. To quantify the risks of time-travelling invasions, we isolated digital virus-like pathogens from the past records of coevolved artificial life communities and studied their simulated invasion into future states of the community. We then investigated how invasions affected diversity of the free-living bacteria-like organisms (i.e., hosts) in recipient communities compared to controls where no invasion occurred (and control invasions of contemporary pathogens). Invading pathogens could often survive and continue evolving, and in a few cases (3.1%) became exceptionally dominant in the invaded community. Even so, invaders often had negligible effects on the invaded community composition; however, in a few, highly unpredictable cases (1.1%), invaders precipitated either substantial losses (up to -32%) or gains (up to +12%) in the total richness of free-living species compared to controls. Given the sheer abundance of ancient microorganisms regularly released into modern communities, such a low probability of outbreak events still presents substantial risks. Our findings therefore suggest that unpredictable threats so far confined to science fiction and conjecture could in fact be powerful drivers of ecological change.

SUBMITTER: Strona G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10374110 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities.

Strona Giovanni G Bradshaw Corey J A CJA Cardoso Pedro P Gotelli Nicholas J NJ Guillaume Frédéric F Manca Federica F Mustonen Ville V Zaman Luis L

PLoS computational biology 20230727 7

Permafrost thawing and the potential 'lab leak' of ancient microorganisms generate risks of biological invasions for today's ecological communities, including threats to human health via exposure to emergent pathogens. Whether and how such 'time-travelling' invaders could establish in modern communities is unclear, and existing data are too scarce to test hypotheses. To quantify the risks of time-travelling invasions, we isolated digital virus-like pathogens from the past records of coevolved ar ...[more]

PMID: 37498846

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Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities.

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Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities.

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