The Impact of Spring Festival Travel on Epidemic Spreading in China.

ABSTRACT: The large population movement during the Spring Festival travel in China can considerably accelerate the spread of epidemics, especially after the relaxation of strict control measures against COVID-19. This study aims to assess the impact of population migration in Spring Festival holiday on epidemic spread under different scenarios. Using inter-city population movement data, we construct the population flow network during the non-holiday time as well as the Spring Festival holiday. We build a large-scale metapopulation model to simulate the epidemic spread among 371 Chinese cities. We analyze the impact of Spring Festival travel on the peak timing and peak magnitude nationally and in each city. Assuming an R₀ (basic reproduction number) of 15 and the initial conditions

SUBMITTER: Sun HC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10384880 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature