Solving the stochastic dynamics of population growth.

ABSTRACT: Population growth is a fundamental process in ecology and evolution. The population size dynamics during growth are often described by deterministic equations derived from kinetic models. Here, we simulate several population growth models and compare the size averaged over many stochastic realizations with the deterministic predictions. We show that these deterministic equations are generically bad predictors of the average stochastic population dynamics. Specifically, deterministic predictions overestimate the simulated population sizes, especially those of populations starting with a small number of individuals. Describing population growth as a stochastic birth process, we prove that the discrepancy between deterministic predictions and simulated data is due to unclosed-moment dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Marrec L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10387745 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature