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Pathways for socio-economic system transitions expressed as a Markov chain.

ABSTRACT: Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis provides a system-theoretical view of scenarios useful for investigating complex socio-economic systems. CIB can synthesize a variety of qualitative or quantitative inputs and return information suggestive of system evolution. Current software tools for CIB are limited to identifying system attractors as well as describing system evolution from only one scenario of initial conditions at a time. Through this study, we enhance CIB by developing and applying a method that considers all possible system evolutions as transitions in a Markov chain. We investigated a simple three-variable system (27 possible scenarios) of the demographic transition and were able to generally replicate the findings of traditional CIB. Through our experiments with four possible approaches to produce CIB Markov chains, we found that information about transition pathways is gained; however, information about system attractors may be lost. Through a comparison of model results to a recent literature review on human demography, we found that low-income countries are more likely to remain stuck in a demographic trap if economic development is not prioritized alongside educational gains. Future work could test our comparative methodological findings for systems comprised of more than three variables.

SUBMITTER: Schweizer VJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10389699 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pathways for socio-economic system transitions expressed as a Markov chain.

Schweizer Vanessa Jine VJ Jamieson-Lane Alastair David AD Cai Hua H Lehner Stephan S Smerlak Matteo M

PloS one 20230731 7

Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis provides a system-theoretical view of scenarios useful for investigating complex socio-economic systems. CIB can synthesize a variety of qualitative or quantitative inputs and return information suggestive of system evolution. Current software tools for CIB are limited to identifying system attractors as well as describing system evolution from only one scenario of initial conditions at a time. Through this study, we enhance CIB by developing and applying a me ...[more]

PMID: 37523367

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Dataset Information

Pathways for socio-economic system transitions expressed as a Markov chain.

Publications

Pathways for socio-economic system transitions expressed as a Markov chain.

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