Time series analyses based on the joint lagged effect analysis of pollution and meteorological factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and the construction of prediction model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-related zoonotic disease induced by hantavirus. Previous studies have identified the influence of meteorological factors on the onset of HFRS, but few studies have focused on the stratified analysis of the lagged effects and interactions of pollution and meteorological factors on HFRS.

Methods

We collected meteorological, contaminant and epidemiological data on cases of HFRS in Shenyang from 2005-2019. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to predict the incidence of HFRS and compared with Holt-Winters three-parameter exponential smoothing model. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag period of 16 days was applied to assess the lag, stratification an

SUBMITTER: Chen Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10399869 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature