Developing a predictive model for an emerging epidemic on cassava in sub-Saharan Africa.

ABSTRACT: The agricultural productivity of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is severely constrained by pests and pathogens, impacting economic stability and food security. An epidemic of cassava brown streak disease, causing significant yield loss, is spreading rapidly from Uganda into surrounding countries. Based on sparse surveillance data, the epidemic front is reported to be as far west as central DRC, the world's highest per capita consumer, and as far south as Zambia. Future spread threatens production in West Africa including Nigeria, the world's largest producer of cassava. Using innovative methods we develop, parameterise and validate a landscape-scale, stochastic epidemic model capturing the spread of the disease throughout Uganda. The model incorporates real-world managemen

SUBMITTER: Godding D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10400665 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature