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A spatio-temporal analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon.

ABSTRACT: Wildfires in the Amazon significantly impact the forest structure and carbon cycle. Understanding the patterns of fire occurrence is crucial for effective management. A novel spatio-temporal point process framework was used to analyze changes in fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon. A dynamic representation of a Log Gaussian Cox process was used to model the intensity function, which was decomposed into trend, seasonality, cycles, covariates, and spatial effects. The results show a marked decrease in long-term fire occurrence movements between the start of the sample and 2012, followed by an increase until the end of the sample, attributed to governance measures and market mechanisms. Spatial variability of fire occurrence rates in the Brazilian Amazon was successfully captured, with regions having more dry seasons experiencing higher fire occurrence rates. This analysis provides valuable insights into fire occurrence patterns in the Amazon region and the factors driving them.

SUBMITTER: Valente F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10404243 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A spatio-temporal analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon.

Valente Fernanda F Laurini Márcio M

Scientific reports 20230805 1

Wildfires in the Amazon significantly impact the forest structure and carbon cycle. Understanding the patterns of fire occurrence is crucial for effective management. A novel spatio-temporal point process framework was used to analyze changes in fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon. A dynamic representation of a Log Gaussian Cox process was used to model the intensity function, which was decomposed into trend, seasonality, cycles, covariates, and spatial effects. The results show a m ...[more]

PMID: 37543631

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Project description:BackgroundTerrestrial biomes in South America are likely to experience a persistent increase in environmental temperature, possibly combined with moisture reduction due to climate change. In addition, natural fire ignition sources, such as lightning, can become more frequent under climate change scenarios since favourable environmental conditions are likely to occur more often. In this sense, changes in the frequency and magnitude of natural fires can impose novel stressors on different ecosystems according to their adaptation to fires. By focusing on Brazilian biomes, we use an innovative combination of techniques to quantify fire persistence and occurrence patterns over time and evaluate climate risk by considering key fire-related climatic characteristics. Then, we tested four major hypotheses considering the overall characteristics of fire-dependent, fire-independent, and fire-sensitive biomes concerning (1) fire persistence over time; (2) the relationship between climate and fire occurrence; (3) future predictions of climate change and its potential impacts on fire occurrence; and (4) climate risk faced by biomes.MethodsWe performed a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis to test whether fires in Brazilian biomes are persistent over time. We considered four bioclimatic variables whose links to fire frequency and intensity are well-established to assess the relationship between climate and fire occurrence by confronting these climate predictors with a fire occurrence dataset through correlative models. To assess climate risk, we calculated the climate hazard, sensitivity, resilience, and vulnerability of Brazilian biomes, and then we multiplied the Biomes' vulnerability index by the hazards.ResultsOur results indicate a persistent behaviour of fires in all Brazilian biomes at almost the same rates, which could represent human-induced patterns of fire persistence. We also corroborated our second hypothesis by showing that most fire-dependent biomes presented high thermal suitability to fire, while the fire-independent biome presented intermediate suitability and fire-sensitive biomes are the least suitable for fire occurrence. The third hypothesis was partially corroborated since fire-dependent and independent biomes are likely to increase their thermal suitability to fire, while fire-sensitive biomes are likely to present stable-to-decreasing thermal suitability in the future. Finally, our fourth hypothesis was partially corroborated since most fire-dependent biomes presented low climate risk, while the fire-independent biome presented a high risk and the fire-sensitive biomes presented opposite trends. In summary, while the patterns of fire persistence and fire occurrence over time are more likely to be related to human-induced fires, key drivers of burned areas are likely to be intensified across Brazilian biomes in the future, potentially increasing the magnitude of the fires and harming the biomes' integrity.

Project description:Despite considerable therapeutic advances in the care of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and an overall reduction of 47% in the AIDS mortality rate in the last decade, the AIDS-mortality rates remains high. The social determinants of health (SDH) have a direct influence on the dynamics of this phenomenon. However, changes in SDH caused by the implemented policies against HIV have been poorly investigated. Moreover, the Brazilian rainforest has had the highest and continuously increasing AIDS mortality rate in Brazil since the 1980s. In this study, AIDS mortality in a province of the Brazilian rainforest was examined by using temporal and spatial analyses.MethodsIn this ecological study, data from 2007 to 2018 were extracted from the Mortality Information System provided by the State Department of Public Health of Pará. For the temporal analysis, the integrated autoregressive model of moving average (ARIMA) and locally weighted polynomial regression (STLF) were used to forecast AIDS mortality from 2019 to 2022. For the spatial analysis, spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression (GWR) analyses were employed.ResultsThe samples consisted of 6,498 notifications for AIDS-related deaths. From 2007 to 2013, the AIDS mortality rates showed an upward trend, followed by a stabilization until 2018 and an upward forecasted trend from 2019 to 2022. High mortality rates and high-high clusters were found in economic pole municipalities. Furthermore, AIDS mortality risk was directly associated with per capita income and demographic density, except in the southwestern region of Pará, which exhibited an inverse association with population density.ConclusionAlthough the policies against HIV may have contributed to the stabilization of AIDS mortality rates from 2013 in Pará, the upward forecasted trend until 2022 raises an alert and concern to health authorities to provide reinforcement of the policies. The geographic variability of AIDS mortality promoted by SDH provides subsidies to health authorities to implement SDH-focused strategies for AIDS mortality reduction.

Dataset Information

A spatio-temporal analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon.

Publications

A spatio-temporal analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon.

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