Dataset Information

Nomogram for predicting the biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A predictive model for biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (nADT) has not been established. This study was aimed at determining multiparameter variables that could be used to construct a nomogram to predict the post-nADT BCR of PCa.

Methods

Overall, 43 radical prostatectomy specimens from PCa patients who had undergone nADT were collected. Multiparameter variables were analyzed by univariate and then multivariate logistic analyses to identify the independent prognostic factors for predicting BCR. The predictive model was established using Lasso regression analysis.

Results

Univariate logistic analysis revealed six variables, pathology stage; margins; categorization as group A, B, or C; nucleolus grading; percentage of tumor involvement (PTI); and PTEN status were significantly associated with the BCR of PCa (all p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that categorization as group C, severe nucleolus grading, PTI less than or equal to 5%, and PTEN loss were positively correlated with BCR (all p < 0.05). A nomogram comprising the four variables predicting BCR was constructed, and it exhibited good discrimination (AUC: 0.985; specificity: 86.2%; sensitivity: 100%). Calibration plots for the probability of freedom from BCR at 1 and 2 years showed a good match between the prediction by the nomogram.

Conclusions

We constructed and validated a nomogram to predict the risk of BCR in PCa patients after nADT. This nomogram is a complement to the existing risk stratification systems for PCa, which could have marked implications for clinical decision-making for PCa patients after nADT.

SUBMITTER: Sun Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10406657 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nomogram for predicting the biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy.

Sun Qi Q Yang Yuan-Zhong YZ Yang Ping P Li Yong-Hong YH Cao Yun Y Chen Dong D Zhang Yijun Y

International urology and nephrology 20230612 9

<h4>Background</h4>A predictive model for biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (nADT) has not been established. This study was aimed at determining multiparameter variables that could be used to construct a nomogram to predict the post-nADT BCR of PCa.<h4>Methods</h4>Overall, 43 radical prostatectomy specimens from PCa patients who had undergone nADT were collected. Multiparameter variables were analyzed by univariate and then multi ...[more]

PMID: 37306931

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Project description:PurposeAndrogen deprivation therapy is often used as salvage treatment in men with rising prostate specific antigen after initial radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Given the lack of evidence from general practice, we examined the association of salvage androgen deprivation therapy with mortality in an observational cohort study.Materials and methodsFrom 3 managed care organizations we assembled a retrospective cohort of all 5,804 men with newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer from 1995 to 2009 who had a prostate specific antigen increase (biochemical recurrence) after primary radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy. The main outcomes were all-cause and prostate cancer specific mortality. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate mortality with salvage androgen deprivation therapy as a time dependent predictor.ResultsOverall salvage androgen deprivation therapy was not associated with all-cause or prostate cancer specific mortality in the prostatectomy cohort (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.70-1.35 or HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.68-2.07) or in the radiotherapy cohort (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.70-1.01 or HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.80-1.40, respectively). Among men with prostate specific antigen doubling time less than 9 months after the prostate specific antigen rise, salvage androgen deprivation therapy was statistically significantly associated with a decreased risk of all-cause and prostate cancer specific mortality in the prostatectomy cohort (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.20-0.63 and HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21-0.91) and in the radiotherapy cohort (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.48-0.80 and HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.47-0.90, respectively).ConclusionsWe found no association of salvage androgen deprivation therapy with all-cause or cause specific mortality in most men with biochemical recurrence after primary radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Men with quickly progressed disease may derive a clinical benefit from salvage androgen deprivation therapy.

Project description:ImportanceThe variant HSD3B1 (1245C) allele enhances dihydrotestosterone synthesis and predicts resistance to androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) for biochemically recurrent prostate cancer after prostatectomy and for metastatic disease. Whether this is true after radiotherapy is unknown.ObjectiveTo determine whether the HSD3B1 (1245C) allele predicts worse clinical outcomes from ADT for biochemical recurrence after radiotherapy.Design, setting, and participantsThe Prostate Clinical Research Information System at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute was used to identify the study cohort, which included men treated with ADT for biochemical recurrence after primary radiotherapy between 1996 and 2013. We retrospectively determined HSD3B1 genotype.Main outcomes and measuresTime to progression, time to metastasis, and overall survival according to genotype. Demographic and treatment characteristics were evaluated for confounders. Multivariable analyses were performed to adjust for known prognostic factors.ResultsA total of 218 eligible men were identified, of whom 213 (98%) were successfully genotyped. Of these, 97 of 213 (46%), 96 of 213 (45%) and 20 of 213 (9%) carried 0, 1, and 2 variant alleles. Overall variant allele frequency was 136 of 426 alleles (32%). Median patient age (interquartile range) was 69 (63-74), 72 (65-78), and 69 (65-77) years for 0, 1, and 2 variant alleles (P = .03). Demographic and treatment factors were otherwise similar. During a median follow-up of 7.9 years, median time to progression was 2.3 years (95% CI, 1.6-3.1 years) with 0 variant alleles, 2.3 years (95% CI, 1.5-3.3 years) with 1 variant allele, and 1.4 years (95% CI, 0.7-3.3 years) with 2 variant alleles (P = .68). Median time to metastasis diminished with the number of variant alleles inherited: 7.4 (95% CI, 6.7-9.7), 5.8 (95% CI, 4.9-6.5), and 4.4 (95% CI, 3.0-5.7) years, with inheritance of 0, 1, and 2 variant alleles, respectively (P = .03). Median OS was 7.7 (95% CI, 6.7-10.3), 6.9 (95% CI, 5.8-8.4), and 7.2 (95% CI, 3.8-7.9) years with inheritance of 0, 1, and 2 variant alleles, respectively (P = .31). On multivariable analysis with 0 variant alleles as the reference, the adjusted hazard ratio for metastasis was 1.19 (95% CI, 0.74-1.92) (P = .48) for 1 variant allele and 2.01 (95% CI, 1.02-3.97) (P = .045) for 2 variant alleles. Multivariable analysis did not demonstrate significant differences in TTP or OS.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, the HSD3B1 (1245C) allele was associated with more rapid development of metastases in men treated with ADT for biochemical recurrence after primary radiation therapy for prostate cancer. Notably, 105 of 213 men (49%) had received prior ADT, and 119 of 213 (56%) received an androgen receptor antagonist during salvage treatment, both of which may attenuate the effect of the variant allele.

Project description:BackgroundThe natural history of prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-defined biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after definitive local therapy is highly variable. Validated prediction models for PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) in this population are needed for treatment decision-making and clinical trial design.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of PCSM from the time of BCR among men with rising PSA levels after radical prostatectomy.Design, setting, and participantsBetween 1987 and 2011, 2254 men treated by radical prostatectomy at one of five high-volume hospitals experienced BCR, defined as three successive PSA rises (final value >0.2 ng/ml), single PSA >0.4 ng/ml, or use of secondary therapy administered for detectable PSA >0.1 ng/ml. Clinical information and follow-up data were modeled using competing-risk regression analysis to predict PCSM from the time of BCR.InterventionRadical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer and subsequent PCa BCR.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisPCSM.Results and limitationsThe 10-yr PCSM and mortality from competing causes was 19% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16-21%) and 17% (95% CI 14-19%), respectively. A nomogram predicting PCSM for all patients had an internally validated concordance index of 0.774. Inclusion of PSA doubling time (PSADT) in a nomogram based on standard parameters modestly improved predictive accuracy (concordance index 0.763 vs 0.754). Significant parameters in the models were preoperative PSA, pathological Gleason score, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion, time to PCa BCR, PSA level at PCa BCR, and PSADT (all p<0.05).ConclusionsWe constructed and validated a nomogram to predict the risk of PCSM at 10 yr among men with PCa BCR after radical prostatectomy. The nomogram may be used for patient counseling and the design of clinical trials for PCa.Patient summaryFor men with biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy, we have developed a model to predict the long-term risk of death from prostate cancer.

Project description:ObjectivesTo investigate the associations of host metabolic factors and metabolic syndrome on prostate cancer-specific death (PCSD) and overall survival (OS) in patients treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for biochemically recurrent disease.Patients and methodsThe analysis included 273 patients with prostate cancer treated with ADT for rising prostate-specific antigen level after surgery or radiotherapy. Patients were assessed for the presence of diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and obesity before commencing ADT, and Adult Treatment Panel III criteria were used to assess the presence of the composite diagnosis of metabolic syndrome. A competing risks regression model was used to assess associations of time to PCSD with the metabolic conditions, while a multivariable Cox regression model was used to assess associations of OS with metabolic syndrome and metabolic conditions.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 11.6 years, 157 patients (58%) died, of whom 58 (21%) died from prostate cancer. At the start of ADT the median (range) patient age was 74 (46-92) years and the median PSA level was 3.0 ng/mL. Metabolic syndrome was observed in 31% of patients; hypertension (68%) and dyslipidaemia (47%) were the most common metabolic conditions. No association of PCSD and metabolic syndrome status was observed. Patients with hypertension tended to have a higher cumulative incidence of PCSD than those without hypertension (sub-distribution hazard ratio [HR] 1.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89, 2.84; P = 0.11) although the difference was not statistically significant. Patients with metabolic syndrome had an increased risk of death from all causes (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.07, 2.29; P = 0.02) when compared with patients without metabolic syndrome, as did patients with hypertension (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.18, 2.49; P = 0.004).ConclusionsNo association of PCSD and metabolic syndrome was observed in this cohort of men receiving ADT for biochemically recurrent prostate cancer. Metabolic syndrome was associated with an increased risk of death from all causes and a similar effect was also observed for patients with prostate cancer with hypertension alone.

Dataset Information

Nomogram for predicting the biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Nomogram for predicting the biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy.

Similar Datasets

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