Dynamic modeling and data fitting of climatic and environmental factors and people's behavior factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanghai, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) appear to be a multi-wave outbreak with unknown mechanisms. We investigate the effects of climatic and environmental factors and changes in people's behavior factors that may be caused by external factors: temperature, relative humidity, and school opening and closing.

Methods

Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and dynamic model are used to research multi-wave outbreaks of HFMD. Climatic and environmental factors impact on transmission rate β(t) is modeled through DLNM and then substituted into this relationship to establish the dynamic model with reported case data to test for validity.

Results

Relative risk (RR) of HFMD infection increases with increasing temperature. The RR of infection first increases and then de

SUBMITTER: Tan C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10412780 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature