Estimating the real burden of gestational syphilis in Brazil, 2007-2018: a Bayesian modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although several studies have estimated gestational syphilis (GS) incidence in several countries, underreporting correction is rarely considered. This study aimed to estimate the level of under-registration and correct the GS incidence rates in the 557 Brazilian microregions.

Methods

Brazilian GS notifications between 2007 and 2018 were obtained from the SINAN-Syphilis system. A cluster analysis was performed to group microregions according to the quality of GS notification. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model was applied to estimate the reporting probabilities among the clusters and to correct the associated incidence rates.

Findings

We estimate that 45,196 (90%-HPD: 13,299; 79,310) GS cases were underreported in Brazil from 2007 to 2018, repr

SUBMITTER: Lopes de Oliveira G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10415804 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature