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Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model: A Preliminary Retrospective Cohort Study of a Patient Sample in Saudi Arabia.

ABSTRACT: Saudi Arabia has an alarmingly high incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its associated risk factors. To effectively assess CVD risk, it is essential to develop tailored models for diverse regions and ethnicities using local population variables. No CVD risk prediction model has been locally developed. This study aims to develop the first 10-year CVD risk prediction model for Saudi adults aged 18 to 75 years. The electronic health records of Saudi male and female patients aged 18 to 75 years, who were seen in primary care settings between 2002 and 2019, were reviewed retrospectively via the Integrated Clinical Information System (ICIS) database (from January 2002 to February 2019). The Cox regression model was used to identify the risk factors and develop the CVD risk prediction model. Overall, 451 patients were included in this study, with a mean follow-up of 12.05 years. Thirty-five (7.7%) patients developed a CVD event. The following risk factors were included: fasting blood sugar (FBS) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), heart failure, antihyperlipidemic therapy, antithrombotic therapy, and antihypertension therapy. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) score was 314.4. This is the first prediction model developed in Saudi Arabia and the second in any Arab country after the Omani study. We assume that our CVD predication model will have the potential to be used widely after the validation study.

SUBMITTER: Alabduljabbar K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10419869 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model: A Preliminary Retrospective Cohort Study of a Patient Sample in Saudi Arabia.

Alabduljabbar Khaled K Alkhalifah Mohammed M Aldheshe Abdulaziz A Shihah Abdulelah Bin AB Abu-Zaid Ahmed A DeVol Edward B EB Albedah Norah N Aldakhil Haifa H Alzayed Balqees B Mahmoud Ahmed A Alkhenizan Abdullah A

Journal of clinical medicine 20230804 15

Saudi Arabia has an alarmingly high incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its associated risk factors. To effectively assess CVD risk, it is essential to develop tailored models for diverse regions and ethnicities using local population variables. No CVD risk prediction model has been locally developed. This study aims to develop the first 10-year CVD risk prediction model for Saudi adults aged 18 to 75 years. The electronic health records of Saudi male and female patients aged 18 to 75 ...[more]

PMID: 37568517

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Project description:BackgroundThere is paucity in the literature regarding gallbladder cancer in Saudi Arabia, possibly because it is not among the top 10 cancers diagnosed nationwide according to the Saudi Cancer Registry. Moreover, national or regional data on gallbladder cancer in Saudi Arabia have not been analyzed. The purpose of this study was to describe the presentation, disease stage, histology, and survival rates for gallbladder cancer in Saudi patients at a single institution between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2017.Materials and methodsThis was a retrospective study of 76 patients who presented to our hospital between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2017, with established diagnosis of gallbladder carcinoma. The diagnosis was made either histopathologically following simple laparoscopic cholecystectomy or biopsy from metastatic liver lesion in patients with gallbladder mass, or the high suspicion of gallbladder carcinoma based on incidental radiological findings. Presentation, disease stage, histology, and treatment modalities were analyzed using descriptive statistics and frequency distributions. Survival rates were analyzed and presented using Kaplan-Meier curves.ResultsBased on initial analyses the disease was more frequent among women (62.0%) than men (39.0%). Surgical resection was attempted in 40.8% patients. The average age at presentation and diagnosis of gallbladder carcinoma was 62.4 years. The disease had two peaks, one at 51.0 years and the other between 66.0 and 70.0 years. The median survival time for the overall at-risk patients was only 1.0 year, while for stage IVB patients was 7.2 months. Adenocarcinoma not otherwise specified (NOS) was the most common histopathology type (75.0%), with most patients presenting with stage IVB disease (75.0%). Gallbladder carcinoma was incidentally detected in 42.1%, including three cases (3.9%) diagnosed at our hospital.ConclusionsGallbladder cancer is a rare type of cancer in Saudi Arabia, and most patients are treated surgically, despite being mostly diagnosed at the advanced stage of the disease.

Project description:BackgroundHypertension is a major global health concern affecting approximately 1.13 billion people worldwide, with most of them residing in developing countries. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of different stages of hypertension and its associated modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors among patients in military-setting hospitals in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was conducted at two hospitals in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. The data were collected from hospital electronic records from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019. The blood pressure levels of patients from the last three separate medical visits were recorded. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were used for the data analysis.ResultsThe study included 884 hypertensive patients. The incidences of stage of elevated BP, stage 1, stage 2, and hypertension crisis were 60.0, 29.5, 7.0, and 3.5 cases per 1000 persons. Multivariate analysis indicated that progression from the stage of elevated blood pressure to hypertension crisis was significantly associated with advanced age (odds ratio [OR] = 3.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.99-8.42), male sex (OR = 2.84, 95% CI: 0.57-5.92), and a positive family history of hypertension (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.23-3.09). Other key determinants of the development of stage of elevated blood pressure to hypertension crisis were current smoking status (OR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.23-4.76), and physical inactivity (OR = 6.48, 95% CI: 2.46-9.14).ConclusionThe incidence stage of elevated blood pressure was high among the patients investigated at armed forces hospitals in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. The logistic regression model proposed in the present study can be used to predict the development of different stages of hypertension. Age, sex, marital status, family history, smoking status, and physical activity play an important role in the development of hypertension. Better strategies to improve awareness, screening, treatment, and management of hypertension are required in Saudi Arabia.

Dataset Information

Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model: A Preliminary Retrospective Cohort Study of a Patient Sample in Saudi Arabia.

Publications

Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model: A Preliminary Retrospective Cohort Study of a Patient Sample in Saudi Arabia.

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