Survival Extrapolation Incorporating General Population Mortality Using Excess Hazard and Cure Models: A Tutorial.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Different parametric survival models can lead to widely discordant extrapolations and decision uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses. The use of excess hazard (EH) methods, which incorporate general population mortality data, has the potential to reduce model uncertainty. This review highlights key practical considerations of EH methods for estimating long-term survival.

Methods

Demonstration of methods used a case study of 686 patients from the German Breast Cancer Study Group, followed for a maximum of 7.3 y and divided into low (1/2) and high (3) grade cancers. Seven standard parametric survival models were fit to each group separately. The same 7 distributions were then used in an EH framework, which incorporated general population mortality rates, and fi

SUBMITTER: Sweeting MJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10422853 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature