Evaluating the strategies to control SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant spread in New Caledonia, a zero-COVID country until September 2021.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

New Caledonia, a former zero-COVID country, was confronted with a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak in September 2021. We evaluate the relative contribution of vaccination, lockdown, and timing of interventions on healthcare burden.

Methods

We developed an age-stratified mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination calibrated for New Caledonia and evaluated three alternative scenarios.

Results

High virus transmission early on was estimated, with R₀ equal to 6.6 (95% confidence interval [6.4-6.7]). Lockdown reduced R₀ by 73% (95% confidence interval [70-76%]). Easing the lockdown increased transmission (39% reduction of the initial R₀); but we did not observe an epidemic rebound. This con

SUBMITTER: Ochida N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10423666 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature