Changing patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence in Hong Kong: a 30-year analysis and future projections.

ABSTRACT:

Background

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between age, period, and birth cohort with the incidence trends of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) in Hong Kong, make projections through 2030 and parse the drivers of the incidence.

Methods

Using data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry, we used an age-period-cohort model to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on NPC incidence trends and make projections. We further assessed the drivers of NPC incidence using a validated decomposition algorithm.

Results

From 1991 to 2020, crude and age-standardized incidence rates of NPC decreased significantly. The net drifts showed significant downward trends for both sexes, and local drift declined in all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios revealed monotoni

SUBMITTER: Wang X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10429092 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature