Empirical distributions of time intervals between COVID-19 cases and more severe outcomes in Scotland.

ABSTRACT: A critical factor in infectious disease control is the risk of an outbreak overwhelming local healthcare capacity. The overall demand on healthcare services will depend on disease severity, but the precise timing and size of peak demand also depends on the time interval (or clinical time delay) between initial infection, and development of severe disease. A broader distribution of intervals may draw that demand out over a longer period, but have a lower peak demand. These interval distributions are therefore important in modelling trajectories of e.g. hospital admissions, given a trajectory of incidence. Conversely, as testing rates decline, an incidence trajectory may need to be inferred through the delayed, but relatively unbiased signal of hospital admissions. Healthcare demand has been

SUBMITTER: Wood AJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10431635 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature