An illusion of predictability in scientific results: Even experts confuse inferential uncertainty and outcome variability.

ABSTRACT: Traditionally, scientists have placed more emphasis on communicating inferential uncertainty (i.e., the precision of statistical estimates) compared to outcome variability (i.e., the predictability of individual outcomes). Here, we show that this can lead to sizable misperceptions about the implications of scientific results. Specifically, we present three preregistered, randomized experiments where participants saw the same scientific findings visualized as showing only inferential uncertainty, only outcome variability, or both and answered questions about the size and importance of findings they were shown. Our results, composed of responses from medical professionals, professional data scientists, and tenure-track faculty, show that the prevalent form of visualizing only inferential unc

SUBMITTER: Zhang S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10438372 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature