Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases.

ABSTRACT: Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas-induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña ev

SUBMITTER: Sobel AH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10438837 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature