Delay-differential SEIR modeling for improved modelling of infection dynamics.

ABSTRACT: SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) approach is a classic modeling method that is frequently used to study infectious diseases. However, in the vast majority of such models transitions from one population group to another are described using the mass-action law. That causes inability to reproduce observable dynamics of an infection such as the incubation period or progression of the disease's symptoms. In this paper, we propose a new approach to simulate the epidemic dynamics based on a system of differential equations with time delays and instant transitions to approximate durations of transition processes more correctly and make model parameters more clear. The suggested approach can be applied not only to Covid-19 but also to the study of other infectious diseases. We utilized

SUBMITTER: Kiselev IN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10439236 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature