Predicting the dengue cluster outbreak dynamics in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Human mobility and climate conditions are recognised key drivers of dengue transmission, but their combined and individual role in the local spatiotemporal clustering of dengue cases is not well understood. This study investigated the effects of human mobility and weather conditions on dengue risk in an urban area in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Methods

We established a Bayesian spatiotemporal model for neighbourhood outbreak prediction and evaluated the performances of two different approaches for constructing an adjacency matrix: one based on geographical proximity and the other based on human mobility patterns. We used population, weather conditions, and past dengue cases as predictors using a flexible distributed lag approach. The human mobility data were estimated

SUBMITTER: Ramadona AL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10442971 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature