Trends and projection of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of HIV in the Middle East and North Africa (1990-2030).

ABSTRACT: Evidence shows a growing trend of the HIV epidemic in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We aimed to project the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in the region from 1990 to 2019 and assess its trend by 2025, and 2030. We extracted the HIV incidence, mortality, and DALY data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and UNAIDS databases. The joinpoint regression model was used to examine changes in HIV trends. The trend changes were estimated by average annual percent change (AAPC). In most countries, an increasing trend was observed in HIV incidence, mortality, and DALY. Specifically, the highest growth in the annual incidence rate was related to Egypt (AAPC = 14.4, GBD) and Iran (AAPC = 9.6, UNAIDS). Notably, Qatar (AAPC = - 5.6, GBD), Bahrain (AAPC = - 

SUBMITTER: Khorrami Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10449905 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature