Fitting Early Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparison of the Performances of Used Models.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 outbreak involved a spread of prediction efforts, especially in the early pandemic phase. A better understanding of the epidemiological implications of the different models seems crucial for tailoring prevention policies. This study aims to explore the concordance and discrepancies in outbreak prediction produced by models implemented and used in the first wave of the epidemic. To evaluate the performance of the model, an analysis was carried out on Italian pandemic data from February 24, 2020. The epidemic models were fitted to data collected at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, and 98 days (the entire time series). At each time step, we made predictions until May 31, 2020. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were calculated

SUBMITTER: Sciannameo V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10454512 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature