Dataset Information

Cost-Effectiveness of Active Surveillance Compared to Early Surgery of Small Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Study on a Korean Population.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recently, active surveillance (AS) has been introduced as an alternative to early surgery (ES) for the management of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), because of its indolent features and low mortality. However, its cost effects have not been determined and the findings of current studies differ, according to each country's medical system.

Methods

A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of AS and ES, based on a reference case of a 40-year-old patient diagnosed with PTMC. Costs and transition probabilities were derived from previous clinical studies in Korean populations, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and net monetary benefit (NMB) were calculated. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at USD 100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to address the uncertainties in the model's variables.

Results

From the base scenario, the cumulative costs and effectiveness were both higher in ES than AS. The ICER for ES, compared with AS, was USD 6,619.86/QALY, lower than the set WTP. The NMB difference between AS and ES increased across the stages (USD 5,980 at the first stage and USD 159,667 at the last stage). The ICER increased along with decreasing age and increasing cost of surgery. The higher the ES utility score and the lower that of AS, the more cost-effective ES, with WTP set at USD 30,000.

Conclusion

In the current Korean medical system, ES is more cost-effective than AS. ES is more cost-effective as it is diagnosed at young age and followed-up for a long time.

SUBMITTER: Baek HS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10462480 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Cost-Effectiveness of Active Surveillance Compared to Early Surgery of Small Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Study on a Korean Population.

Baek Han-Sang HS Ha Jeonghoon J Kim Kwangsoon K Bae Jaseong J Kim Jeong Soo JS Kim Sungju S Lim Dong-Jun DJ Kim Chulmin C

Journal of Korean medical science 20230828 34

<h4>Background</h4>Recently, active surveillance (AS) has been introduced as an alternative to early surgery (ES) for the management of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), because of its indolent features and low mortality. However, its cost effects have not been determined and the findings of current studies differ, according to each country's medical system.<h4>Methods</h4>A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of AS and ES, based on a reference case of a 40-year ...[more]

PMID: 37644680

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Project description:Objectives In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness comparison of the active surveillance (AS) and early surgery (ES) approaches for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. Methods We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model of PTMC we developed to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AS and ES. Our reference case was of a 40-year-old woman diagnosed with unifocal (<10 mm) PTMC. Relevant data were extracted after an extensive literature review, and the cost incurred in each state was determined using China Medicare data on payments for ES and AS. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at ¥242,928/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for any uncertainty in the model’s variables. Additional subgroup analyses were performed to determine whether AS was cost-effective when different initial monitoring ages were used. Results ES exhibited an effectiveness of 5.2 QALYs, whereas AS showed an effectiveness of 25.8 QALYs. Furthermore, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ES versus AS was ¥1,009/QALY. The findings of all sensitivity analyses were robust. Compared with ES, AS was found to be the cost-effective strategy at initial monitoring ages of 20 and 60 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ¥3,431/QALY and −¥1,316/QALY at 20 and 60 years, respectively. AS was a more cost-effective strategy in patients with PTMC aged more than 60. Conclusions With respect to the norms of the Chinese healthcare system, AS was more cost-effective for PTMC over lifetime surveillance than ES. Furthermore, it was cost-effective even when the initial monitoring ages were different. In addition, if AS is incorporated into the management plan for PTMC in China at the earliest possible stage, a predicted savings of ¥10 × 108/year could be enabled for every 50,000 cases of PTMC, which indicates a good economic return for future management programs. The identification of such nuances can help physicians and patients determine the best and most individualized long-term management strategy for low-risk PTMC.

Project description:Background: Active surveillance (AS) is an alternative to thyroidectomy for the management of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). However, prospective AS data collected from diverse populations are needed. Methods: This multicenter prospective cohort study enrolled patients from three referral hospitals in Korea. The participants were self-assigned into two groups, AS or immediate surgery. All patients underwent neck ultrasound every 6-12 months to monitor for disease progression. Progression under AS was evaluated by a criterion of tumor size increment by 3 mm in one dimension (3 mm), 2 mm in two dimensions (2 × 2 mm), new extrathyroidal extension (ETE), or new lymph node metastasis (LNM), and a composite outcome was defined using all four criteria. Results: A total of 1177 eligible patients with PTMC (919 female, 78.1%) with a median age of 48 years (range 19-87) were enrolled; 755 (64.1%) patients chose AS and 422 (35.9%) underwent surgery. Among 755 patients under AS, 706 (female 537, 76.1%) underwent at least two ultrasound examinations and were analyzed. Over a follow-up period of 41.4 months (standard deviation, 16.0), 163 AS patients (23.1%) underwent surgery. Progression defined by the composite outcome was observed in 9.6% (68/706) of patients, and the 2- and 5-year progression estimates were 5.3% and 14.2%, respectively. The observed progression rates were 5.8% (41/706) and 5.4% (38/706) as defined by tumor size enlargement by 3 mm and 2 × 2 mm, respectively, and 1.3% (9/706) and 0.4% (3/706) for new LNM and ETE, respectively. No distant metastases developed during AS. In multivariate logistic regression analysis examining variables associated with progression under AS, age at diagnosis <30 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10 - 7.45), male sex (OR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.47 - 4.20), and tumor size ≥6 mm (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.09 - 3.27) were independently significant. Conclusions: The progression of low-risk PTMC during AS in the Korean population was low, but slightly higher than previously reported in other populations. Risk factors for disease progression under AS include younger age, male sex, and larger tumor size. Clinical trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02938702.

Project description:ObjectiveInvolvement of multiple lymph node (LN) metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) may indicate a progressive disease. To assist treatment decision, we conducted a clinical study to develop and validate a prediction model for the preoperative evaluation of LN metastasis involving more than five lymph nodes in patients with clinical N0 (cN0) PTMC.Material and methodsUsing data from 6,337 patients with cN0 PTMCs at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital from 2013 to 2017, we identified and integrated risk factors for the prediction of multiple LN metastasis to build a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The model was validated using bootstrap resampling of the training cohort and an independent temporal validation cohort at the same institution.ResultsIn the training cohort (n = 3,209 patients), six independent risk factors were identified and included the prediction model (PTMC Active Surveillance or Surgery (ASOS) Model), including age, gender, multifocality, tumor size, calcification, and aspect ratio. The PTMC ASOS model was validated both internally and through the temporal validation cohort (n = 3,128 patients) from the same institute. The C-indexes of the prediction model in the training cohort were 0.768 (95% CI, 0.698-0.838), 0.768 and 0.771 in the internal validation and external validation cohorts, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.7068 and 0.6799. The calibration curve for probability of large-LN metastasis showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. DCA curves were used for comparison with another model, and IDI and NRI were also calculated. The cutoff value of our model was obtained by the ROC curve. Based on this model and cut point, a web-based dynamic nomogram was developed (https://tjmuch-thyroid.shinyapps.io/PTMCASOSM/).ConclusionWe established a novel nomogram that can help to distinguish preoperatively cN0 PTMC patients with or without metastasis of multiple lymph nodes. This clinical prediction model may be used in decision making for both active surveillance and surgery.

Project description:Background: Active surveillance (AS) of small, low-risk papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) is increasingly being considered. There is limited understanding of why individuals with low-risk PTC may choose AS over traditional surgical management. Methods: We present a mixed-methods analysis of a prospective observational real-life decision-making study regarding the choice of thyroidectomy or AS for management of localized, low-risk PTCs <2 cm in maximum diameter (NCT03271892). Patients were provided standardized medical information and were interviewed after making their decision (which dictated disease management). We evaluated patients' levels of decision-self efficacy (confidence in medical decision-making ability) at the time information was presented and their level of decision satisfaction after finalizing their decision (using standardized questionnaires). We asked patients to explain the reason for their choice and qualitatively analyzed the results. Results: We enrolled 74 women and 26 men of mean age 52.4 years, with a mean PTC size of 11.0 mm (interquartile range 9.0, 14.0 mm). Seventy-one patients (71.0% [95% confidence interval 60.9-79.4%]) chose AS over surgery. Ninety-four percent (94/100) of participants independently made their own disease management choice; the rest shared the decision with their physician. Participants had a high baseline level of decision self-efficacy (mean 94.3, standard deviation 9.6 on a 100-point scale). Almost all (98%, 98/100) participants reported high decision satisfaction. Factors reported by patients as influencing their decision included the following: perceived risk of thyroidectomy or the cancer, family considerations, treatment timing in the context of life circumstances, and trust in health care providers. Conclusions: In this Canadian study, ∼7 out of 10 patients with small, low-risk PTC, who were offered the choice of AS or surgery, chose AS. Personal perceptions about cancer or thyroidectomy, contextual factors, family considerations, and trust in health care providers strongly influenced patients' disease management choices.

Project description:Background: Active surveillance is established as an alternative to surgery for papillary thyroid microcarcinomas, but inclusion criteria and mortality risk for pursuing a nonsurgical approach have not been clearly defined. To gauge the feasibility of expanding active surveillance thresholds, we investigated the effects of increasing size and age on disease-specific survival (DSS) in a large nonoperative thyroid cancer cohort, compared against a matched group of surgical patients. Methods: Papillary thyroid carcinoma patients staged T1-4N0M0 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1975 and 2015, stratified by nonsurgical and surgical management. Propensity score matching was performed to adjust for imbalances in covariates. Multivariable models were constructed using restricted cubic splines to model nonlinear relationships of age and tumor size with DSS. Results: Overall, 1453 nonoperative patients and 54,718 surgical patients met the inclusion criteria. Collectively, increasing age and size after certain thresholds independently led to greater differences in DSS between nonsurgical and surgical patients. For younger ages (14-55 years), surgical approach compared with nonsurgical approach was not associated with any difference in the 10-year DSS among 0-4 cm cancers (99.8% vs. 100%, p = 0.470), 4.1-6 cm cancers (98.8% vs. 100%, p = 0.599), or >6 cm cancers (97.3% vs. 100%, p = 0.718). Older patients with larger tumors (>75 years, >6 cm) demonstrated the greatest difference in DSS (48.1% vs. 91.3%, p < 0.001). Similar results were found when applying propensity score matching. For age, restricted cubic spline plots showed minimal relative survival hazard in nonoperative cases beginning after age 60 years, with a change point illustrating acceleration in relative hazard beyond age 72 years. For size, relative survival hazard was observed after 2.0 cm and increased slowly with nodule growth up to an inflection point of 4.5 cm. Beyond this, mortality risk escalated with each additional year without plateau. Conclusions: Increasing age and size lead to progressively greater mortality risk without surgery, but only beyond certain thresholds. We define escalating gradients at which a nonsurgical approach may be deemed appropriate, and beyond which survival benefits from surgery become apparent. Such findings reconcile controversial observations regarding age and size in active surveillance and further reshape evolving treatment paradigms in thyroid cancer.

Project description:ImportanceActive surveillance of low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is now an accepted alternative to immediate surgery, but experience with this approach outside of Japan is limited. The kinetics (probability, rate, and magnitude) of PTC tumor growth under active surveillance have not been well defined.ObjectiveTo describe the kinetics of PTC tumor growth during active surveillance.Design, setting, and participantsCohort study of 291 patients undergoing active surveillance for low-risk PTC (intrathyroidal tumors ≤1.5 cm) with serial tumor measurements via ultrasonography at a tertiary referral center in the United States.InterventionActive surveillance.Main outcomes and measuresThe cumulative incidence, rate, and magnitude of the change in tumor diameter or volume, as well as associations with patient and tumor characteristics.ResultsOf the 291 patients, 219 (75.3%) were women; mean (SD) age was 52 (15) years. During a median (range) active surveillance of 25 (6-166) months, growth in tumor diameter of 3 mm or more was observed in 11 of 291 (3.8%) patients, with a cumulative incidence of 2.5% (2 years) and 12.1% (5 years). No regional or distant metastases developed during active surveillance. In all cases, 3-dimensional measurements of tumor volume allowed for earlier identification of growth (median, 8.2 months; range, 3-46 months before increase in tumor diameter). In multivariable analysis, both younger age at diagnosis (hazard ratio per year, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98; P = .006) and risk category at presentation (hazard ratio for inappropriate, 55.17; 95% CI, 9.4-323.19; P < .001) were independently associated with the likelihood of tumor growth. Of the tumors experiencing volume growth, kinetics demonstrated a classic exponential growth pattern, with a median doubling time of 2.2 years (range, 0.5-4.8 years; median r2 = 0.75; range, 0.42-0.99).Conclusions and relevanceThe rates of tumor growth during active surveillance in a US cohort with PTCs measuring 1.5 cm or less were low. Serial measurement of tumor volumes may facilitate early identification of tumors that will continue to grow and thereby inform the timing of surveillance imaging and therapeutic interventions.

Dataset Information

Cost-Effectiveness of Active Surveillance Compared to Early Surgery of Small Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Study on a Korean Population.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Cost-Effectiveness of Active Surveillance Compared to Early Surgery of Small Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Study on a Korean Population.

Similar Datasets

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