Dataset Information

Stochasticity and Infectious Disease Dynamics: Density and Weather Effects on a Fungal Insect Pathogen.

ABSTRACT: In deterministic models of epidemics, there is a host abundance threshold above which the introduction of a few infected individuals leads to a severe epidemic. Studies of weather-driven animal pathogens often assume that abundance thresholds will be overwhelmed by weather-driven stochasticity, but tests of this assumption are lacking. We collected observational and experimental data for a fungal pathogen, Entomophaga maimaiga, that infects the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar. We used an advanced statistical-computing algorithm to fit mechanistic models to our data, such that different models made different assumptions about the effects of host density and weather on E. maimaiga epizootics (epidemics in animals). We then used Akaike information criterion analysis to choose the best model. In the best model, epizootics are driven by a combination of weather and host density, and the model does an excellent job of explaining the data, whereas models that allow only for weather effects or only for density-dependent effects do a poor job of explaining the data. Density-dependent transmission in our best model produces a host density threshold, but this threshold is strongly blurred by the stochastic effects of weather. Our work shows that host-abundance thresholds may be important even if weather strongly affects transmission, suggesting that epidemiological models that allow for weather have an important role to play in understanding animal pathogens. The success of our model means that it could be useful for managing the gypsy moth, an important pest of hardwood forests in North America.

SUBMITTER: Kyle CH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10465172 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stochasticity and Infectious Disease Dynamics: Density and Weather Effects on a Fungal Insect Pathogen.

Kyle Colin H CH Liu Jiawei J Gallagher Molly E ME Dukic Vanja V Dwyer Greg G

The American naturalist 20200115 3

In deterministic models of epidemics, there is a host abundance threshold above which the introduction of a few infected individuals leads to a severe epidemic. Studies of weather-driven animal pathogens often assume that abundance thresholds will be overwhelmed by weather-driven stochasticity, but tests of this assumption are lacking. We collected observational and experimental data for a fungal pathogen, <i>Entomophaga maimaiga</i>, that infects the gypsy moth, <i>Lymantria dispar</i>. We used ...[more]

PMID: 32097039

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Project description:The majority of invasive human fungal pathogens gain access to their human hosts via the inhalation of spores from the environment into the lung, but relatively little is known about this infectious process. Among human fungal pathogens the most frequent cause of inhaled fatal fungal disease is Cryptococcus, which can disseminate from the lungs to other tissues, including the brain, where it causes meningoencephalitis. To determine the mechanisms by which distinct infectious particles of Cryptococcus cause disseminated disease, we evaluated two developmental cell types (spores and yeast) in mouse models of infection. We discovered that while both yeast and spores from several strains cause fatal disease, there was a consistently higher fungal burden in the brains of spore-infected mice. To determine the basis for this difference, we compared the pathogenesis of avirulent yeast strains with their spore progeny derived from sexual crosses. Strikingly, we discovered that spores produced by avirulent yeast caused uniformly fatal disease in the murine inhalation model of infection. We determined that this difference in outcome is associated with the preferential dissemination of spores to the lymph system. Specifically, mice infected with spores harbored Cryptococcus in their lung draining lymph nodes as early as one day after infection, whereas mice infected with yeast did not. Furthermore, phagocyte depletion experiments revealed this dissemination to the lymph nodes to be dependent on CD11c+ phagocytes, indicating a critical role for host immune cells in preferential spore trafficking. Taken together, these data support a model in which spores capitalize on phagocytosis by immune cells to escape the lung and gain access to other tissues, such as the central nervous system, to cause fatal disease. These previously unrealized insights into early interactions between pathogenic fungal spores and lung phagocytes provide new opportunities for understanding cryptococcosis and other spore-mediated fungal diseases.

Dataset Information

Stochasticity and Infectious Disease Dynamics: Density and Weather Effects on a Fungal Insect Pathogen.

Publications

Stochasticity and Infectious Disease Dynamics: Density and Weather Effects on a Fungal Insect Pathogen.

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