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Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

ABSTRACT: Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction number. We found that, overall, social distancing measures (38% reduction, 95% prediction interval 31-45%), face masks (30%, 17-42%) and close contact tracing (28%, 24-31%) were most effective. Contact tracing was crucial in containing outbreaks during the initial phases, while social distancing measures became increasingly prominent as the spread persisted. In addition, infections with higher transmissibility and a shorter latent period posed more challenges for these measures. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the effects of public-health measures for zeroing out emerging contagions in different contexts.

SUBMITTER: Ge Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10465600 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Ge Yong Y Wu Xilin X Zhang Wenbin W Wang Xiaoli X Zhang Die D Wang Jianghao J Liu Haiyan H Ren Zhoupeng Z Ruktanonchai Nick W NW Ruktanonchai Corrine W CW Cleary Eimear E Yao Yongcheng Y Wesolowski Amy A Cummings Derek A T DAT Li Zhongjie Z Tatem Andrew J AJ Lai Shengjie S

Nature communications 20230829 1

Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction ...[more]

PMID: 37644012

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Project description:ObjectivesThe four SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC; Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta) identified by May 2021 are highly transmissible, yet little is known about their impact on public health measures. We aimed to synthesise evidence related to public health measures and VOC.DesignA rapid scoping review.Data sourcesOn 11 May 2021, seven databases (MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Central Register of Controlled Trials, Epistemonikos' L-OVE on COVID-19, medRxiv, bioRxiv) were searched for terms related to VOC, public health measures, transmission and health systems. No limit was placed on date of publication.Eligibility criteriaStudies were included if they reported on any of the four VOCs and public health measures, and were available in English. Only studies reporting on data collected after October 2020, when the first VOC was reported, were included.Data extraction and synthesisTitles, abstracts and full-text articles were screened by two independent reviewers. Data extraction was completed by two independent reviewers using a standardised form. Data synthesis and reporting followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines.ResultsOf the 37 included studies, the majority assessed the impact of Alpha (n=32) and were conducted in Europe (n=12) or the UK (n=9). Most were modelling studies (n=28) and preprints (n=28). The majority of studies reported on infection control measures (n=17), followed by modifying approaches to vaccines (n=13), physical distancing (n=6) and either mask wearing, testing or hand washing (n=2). Findings suggest an accelerated vaccine rollout is needed to mitigate the spread of VOC.ConclusionsThe increased severity of VOC requires proactive public health measures to control their spread. Further research is needed to strengthen the evidence for continued implementation of public health measures in conjunction with vaccine rollout. With no studies reporting on Delta, there is a need for further research on this and other emerging VOC on public health measures.

Project description:BackgroundSince the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2019, various public health and social measures (PHSMs) have been used to suppress and mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. With mass vaccination programmes against COVID-19 being rolled out in many countries in early 2021, we aimed to evaluate to what extent travel restrictions and other PHSMs can be relaxed without exacerbating the local and global spread of COVID-19.MethodsWe adapted an existing age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics that can be parameterised with country-specific age demographics and contact patterns to simulate the effect of vaccination and PHSM relaxation on transmission. We varied assumptions by age-specific susceptibility and infectiousness, vaccine uptake, contact patterns, and age structures. We used Hong Kong as a case study and assumed that, before vaccination, the population is completely susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. We applied our model to 304 jurisdictions (27 countries and 277 sub-national administrative regions from eight countries). We assumed that PHSMs have suppressed the effective reproductive number (Re) to fall between 1·0 and 9·0 locally before the commencement of vaccination programmes. We evaluated the levels of PHSMs that should be maintained during the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination to avoid a large local outbreak of COVID-19, with different assumptions about vaccine efficacy, vaccination coverage, and travel restrictions. We assumed that the maximum capacity of the health system, in terms of daily hospital admissions, is 0·005% of the population size.FindingsAt vaccine efficacy of 0·80 in reducing susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection, 0·50 in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infectivity, and 0·95 in reducing symptomatic COVID-19 diseases, vaccination coverage would have to be 100% for all individuals aged 30 or older to avoid an outbreak, when relaxing PHSMs, that would overload the local health-care system, assuming a pre-vaccination Re of 2·5. Testing and quarantine of at least 5 days would have to be maintained for inbound travellers to minimise the risk of reintroducing a local outbreak until high vaccination coverages are attained locally and overseas in most countries.InterpretationGradual relaxation of PHSMs should be carefully planned during the roll-out of vaccination programmes, and easing of travel restrictions weighed against risk of reintroducing outbreaks, to avoid overwhelming health systems and minimise deaths related to COVID-19.FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund and the General Research Fund.

Project description:Using genomics, bioinformatics and statistics, herein we demonstrate the effect of statewide and nationwide quarantine on the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) in Hawai'i. To define the origins of introduced VOC, we analyzed 260 VOC sequences from Hawai'i, and 301,646 VOC sequences worldwide, deposited in the GenBank and global initiative on sharing all influenza data (GISAID), and constructed phylogenetic trees. The trees define the most recent common ancestor as the origin. Further, the multiple sequence alignment used to generate the phylogenetic trees identified the consensus single nucleotide polymorphisms in the VOC genomes. These consensus sequences allow for VOC comparison and identification of mutations of interest in relation to viral immune evasion and host immune activation. Of note is the P71L substitution within the E protein, the protein sensed by TLR2 to produce cytokines, found in the B.1.351 VOC may diminish the efficacy of some vaccines. Based on the phylogenetic trees, the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429 VOC have been introduced in Hawai'i multiple times since December 2020 from several definable geographic regions. From the first worldwide report of VOC in GenBank and GISAID, to the first arrival of VOC in Hawai'i, averages 320 days with quarantine, and 132 days without quarantine. As such, the effect of quarantine is shown to significantly affect the time to arrival of VOC in Hawai'i. Further, the collective 2020 quarantine of 43-states in the United States demonstrates a profound impact in delaying the arrival of VOC in states that did not practice quarantine, such as Utah. Our data demonstrates that at least 76% of all definable SARS-CoV-2 VOC have entered Hawai'i from California, with the B.1.351 variant in Hawai'i originating exclusively from the United Kingdom. These data provide a foundation for policy-makers and public-health officials to apply precision public health genomics to real-world policies such as mandatory screening and quarantine.

Project description:Using genomics, bioinformatics and statistics, herein we demonstrate the effect of statewide and nationwide quarantine on the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) in Hawai'i. To define the origins of introduced VOC, we analyzed 260 VOC sequences from Hawai'i, and 301,646 VOC sequences worldwide, deposited in the GenBank and global initiative on sharing all influenza data (GISAID), and constructed phylogenetic trees. The trees define the most recent common ancestor as the origin. Further, the multiple sequence alignment used to generate the phylogenetic trees identified the consensus single nucleotide polymorphisms in the VOC genomes. These consensus sequences allow for VOC comparison and identification of mutations of interest in relation to viral immune evasion and host immune activation. Of note is the P71L substitution within the E protein, the protein sensed by TLR2 to produce cytokines, found in the B.1.351 VOC may diminish the efficacy of some vaccines. Based on the phylogenetic trees, the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429 VOC have been introduced in Hawai'i multiple times since December 2020 from several definable geographic regions. From the first worldwide report of VOC in GenBank and GISAID, to the first arrival of VOC in Hawai'i, averages 320 days with quarantine, and 132 days without quarantine. As such, the effect of quarantine is shown to significantly affect the time to arrival of VOC in Hawai'i, both during and following quarantine. Further, the collective 2020 quarantine of 43-states in the United States demonstrates a profound impact in delaying the arrival of VOC in states that did not practice quarantine, such as Utah. Our data demonstrates that at least 76% of all definable SARS-CoV-2 VOC have entered Hawai'i from California, with the B.1.351 variant in Hawai'i originating exclusively from the United Kingdom. These data provide a foundation for policy-makers and public-health officials to apply precision public health genomics to real-world policies such as mandatory screening and quarantine.

Dataset Information

Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Publications

Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

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