SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.

ABSTRACT: Serosurveys are a key resource for measuring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) population exposure. A growing body of evidence suggests that asymptomatic and mild infections (together making up over 95% of all infections) are associated with lower antibody titers than severe infections. Antibody levels also peak a few weeks after infection and decay gradually. We developed a statistical approach to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from raw seroprevalence survey results that account for these sources of spectrum bias. We incorporate data on antibody responses on multiple assays from a postinfection longitudinal cohort, along with epidemic time series to account for the timing of a serosurvey relative to how recently individuals may have been infected. We

SUBMITTER: Takahashi S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10472487 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature