Dataset Information

SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.

ABSTRACT: Serosurveys are a key resource for measuring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) population exposure. A growing body of evidence suggests that asymptomatic and mild infections (together making up over 95% of all infections) are associated with lower antibody titers than severe infections. Antibody levels also peak a few weeks after infection and decay gradually. We developed a statistical approach to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from raw seroprevalence survey results that account for these sources of spectrum bias. We incorporate data on antibody responses on multiple assays from a postinfection longitudinal cohort, along with epidemic time series to account for the timing of a serosurvey relative to how recently individuals may have been infected. We applied this method to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from 5 large-scale SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys across different settings and study designs. We identified substantial differences between raw seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of over 2-fold in the results of some surveys, and we provide a tool for practitioners to generate cumulative incidence estimates with preset or custom parameter values. While unprecedented efforts have been launched to generate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates over this past year, interpretation of results from these studies requires properly accounting for both population-level epidemiologic context and individual-level immune dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Takahashi S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10472487 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.

Takahashi Saki S Peluso Michael J MJ Hakim Jill J Turcios Keirstinne K Janson Owen O Routledge Isobel I Busch Michael P MP Hoh Rebecca R Tai Viva V Kelly J Daniel JD Martin Jeffrey N JN Deeks Steven G SG Henrich Timothy J TJ Greenhouse Bryan B Rodríguez-Barraquer Isabel I

American journal of epidemiology 20230901 9

Serosurveys are a key resource for measuring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) population exposure. A growing body of evidence suggests that asymptomatic and mild infections (together making up over 95% of all infections) are associated with lower antibody titers than severe infections. Antibody levels also peak a few weeks after infection and decay gradually. We developed a statistical approach to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from raw seroprevalence surve ...[more]

PMID: 37119030

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Project description:BackgroundMeasures of malaria burden using microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in cross-sectional household surveys may incompletely describe the burden of malaria in low-transmission settings. This study describes the pattern of malaria transmission in Ethiopia using serological antibody estimates derived from a nationwide household survey completed in 2015.MethodsDried blood spot (DBS) samples were collected during the Ethiopian Malaria Indicator Survey in 2015 from malarious areas across Ethiopia. Samples were analysed using bead-based multiplex assays for IgG antibodies for six Plasmodium antigens: four human malaria species-specific merozoite surface protein-1 19kD antigens (MSP-1) and Apical Membrane Antigen-1 (AMA-1) for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Seroprevalence was estimated by age, elevation and region. The seroconversion rate was estimated using a reversible catalytic model fitted with maximum likelihood methods.ResultsOf the 10,278 DBS samples available, 93.6% (9622/10,278) had valid serological results. The mean age of participants was 15.8 years and 53.3% were female. National seroprevalence for antibodies to P. falciparum was 32.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.8-34.4) and 25.0% (95% CI 22.7-27.3) to P. vivax. Estimated seroprevalences for Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale were 8.6% (95% CI 7.6-9.7) and 3.1% (95% CI 2.5-3.8), respectively. For P. falciparum seroprevalence estimates were significantly higher at lower elevations (< 2000 m) compared to higher (2000-2500 m) (aOR 4.4; p < 0.01). Among regions, P. falciparum seroprevalence ranged from 11.0% (95% CI 8.8-13.7) in Somali to 65.0% (95% CI 58.0-71.4) in Gambela Region and for P. vivax from 4.0% (95% CI 2.6-6.2) in Somali to 36.7% (95% CI 30.0-44.1) in Amhara Region. Models fitted to measure seroconversion rates showed variation nationally and by elevation, region, antigen type, and within species.ConclusionUsing multiplex serology assays, this study explored the cumulative malaria burden and regional dynamics of the four human malarias in Ethiopia. High malaria burden was observed in the northwest compared to the east. High transmission in the Gambela and Benishangul-Gumuz Regions and the neglected presence of P. malariae and P. ovale may require programmatic attention. The use of a multiplex assay for antibody detection in low transmission settings has the potential to act as a more sensitive biomarker.

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Dataset Information

SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.

Publications

SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.

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