Dataset Information

The Cardiovascular Literature-Based Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA): Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Non-Dialysis Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease.

ABSTRACT:

Background and objectives

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is the main cause of morbidity and mortality in patients suffering from chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although it is widely recognized that CV risk assessment represents an essential prerequisite for clinical management, existing prognostic models appear not to be entirely adequate for CKD patients. We derived a literature-based, naïve-bayes model predicting the yearly risk of CV hospitalizations among patients suffering from CKD, referred as the CArdiovascular, LIterature-Based, Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA).

Methods

CALIBRA incorporates 31 variables including traditional and CKD-specific risk factors. It was validated in two independent CKD populations: the FMC NephroCare cohort (European Clinical Database, EuCliD^®) and the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study prospective cohort. CALIBRA performance was evaluated by c-statistics and calibration charts. In addition, CALIBRA discrimination was compared with that of three validated tools currently used for CV prediction in CKD, namely the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) risk score, the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), and the Individual Data Analysis of Antihypertensive Intervention Trials (INDANA) calculator. Superiority was defined as a ΔAUC>0.05.

Results

CALIBRA showed good discrimination in both the EuCliD^® medical registry (AUC 0.79, 95%CI 0.76-0.81) and the GCKD cohort (AUC 0.73, 95%CI 0.70-0.76). CALIBRA demonstrated improved accuracy compared to the benchmark models in EuCliD^® (FHS: ΔAUC=-0.22, p<0.001; ASCVD: ΔAUC=-0.17, p<0.001; INDANA: ΔAUC=-0.14, p<0.001) and GCKD (FHS: ΔAUC=-0.16, p<0.001; ASCVD: ΔAUC=-0.12, p<0.001; INDANA: ΔAUC=-0.04, p<0.001) populations. Accuracy of the CALIBRA score was stable also for patients showing missing variables.

Conclusion

CALIBRA provides accurate and robust stratification of CKD patients according to CV risk and allows score calculations with improved accuracy compared to established CV risk scores also in real-world clinical cohorts with considerable missingness rates. Our results support the generalizability of CALIBRA across different CKD populations and clinical settings.

SUBMITTER: Neri L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10479593 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The Cardiovascular Literature-Based Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA): Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Non-Dialysis Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease.

Neri Luca L Lonati Caterina C Titapiccolo Jasmine Ion JI Nadal Jennifer J Meiselbach Heike H Schmid Matthias M Baerthlein Barbara B Tschulena Ulrich U Schneider Markus P MP Schultheiss Ulla T UT Barbieri Carlo C Moore Christoph C Steppan Sonia S Eckardt Kai-Uwe KU Stuard Stefano S Bellocchio Francesco F

Frontiers in nephrology 20220712

<h4>Background and objectives</h4>Cardiovascular (CV) disease is the main cause of morbidity and mortality in patients suffering from chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although it is widely recognized that CV risk assessment represents an essential prerequisite for clinical management, existing prognostic models appear not to be entirely adequate for CKD patients. We derived a literature-based, naïve-bayes model predicting the yearly risk of CV hospitalizations among patients suffering from CKD, ref ...[more]

PMID: 37675027

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the widespread use of long-acting erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) has facilitated the improvement of anemia in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the improvement in prognosis has not been fully demonstrated. Iron deficiency is associated with the development of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and the relative iron deficiency induced by erythropoiesis-stimulating agents may prevent the improvement of prognosis. Therefore, we investigated the association between iron deficiency and cardiovascular events during long-acting erythropoiesis-stimulating agent therapy using transferrin saturation (TSAT), which is less susceptible to inflammation than ferritin.MethodsThis study included 1040 patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD, aged ≥ 20 years, with a glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and hemoglobin < 11 g/dL, who were treated with darbepoetin alfa for 96 weeks. The patients were recruited in the BRIGHTEN Trial, a multicenter, prospective, observational study conducted to evaluate erythropoiesis-stimulating agent resistance to darbepoetin alfa in treating anemia in non-dialysis-dependent CKD in a clinical setting. The association between transferrin saturation and the cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. To calculate the hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and the Cox proportional hazards model were used.ResultsSurvival curve analysis for cardiovascular events indicated that patients with transferrin saturation ≥ 30% had a significantly better prognosis, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.22-0.52). Stratified analysis revealed that patients with transferrin saturation of 30-40% had a significantly lower risk of cardiovascular events than those with transferrin saturation of 20-30%, even after a multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio of 0.33 (95% confidence interval 0.21-0.54).ConclusionPatients with CKD and transferrin saturation of 30-40% had significantly fewer cardiovascular events than those with transferrin saturation of 20-30% among patients treated with long-acting erythropoiesis-stimulating agents. Therefore, it may be useful to maintain higher transferrin saturation from the viewpoint of erythropoiesis-stimulating agent responsiveness and the reduction of cardiovascular events.

Project description:This article presents a dataset of body composition in chronic kidney disease (CKD) non-dialysis-dependent (NDD), hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) (for at least 3 months), and kidney transplantation (KTx) (for at least 6 months) patients. The data were collected as part of a PhD research project, an observational cross-sectional study followed by a prospective analysis (about 6 months later). Adult CKD patients (18≤age≤60 years old) from a tertiary hospital were recruited: CKD in stages 3b to 5 for NDD patients; PD patients without peritonitis in the last 30 days; HD patients in 4-hour dialysis session, 3 times per week, through an arteriovenous fistula; and KTx patients with CKD in stages 1 to 3a. Patients with presence of amputated limbs or an electronic implant, wheelchair user or inpatient, body weight above 140 kg or BMI higher than 40 kg/m2, acute infections, cancer diagnosis, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, and others that could alter body composition were excluded. The dataset in this publication consist of some clinical measurements for characterization of the sample, body composition measurements by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and by bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy in tetra-polar whole-body wrist to ankle (BISWB) and segmental (BISSEG) protocols of 266 CKD patients, being 137 men and 129 women; 81 in NDD treatment, 83 in HD, 24 in PD, and 80 in KTx. Measurements were performed consecutively by the same professional after an 8-hour fast, empty urinary bladder, drainage of the peritoneal dialysate, and just after the midweek hemodialysis session. To analyze differences among subgroups according to sex and CKD treatment, unpaired T test or ANOVA and Chi-square, adjusted by Bonferroni post-test, were applied. Agreement in fat free mass and fat mass measurements between BISWB and BISSEG, for cross-sectional data and for body composition changes (prospective measurement - cross-sectional measurement), was checked using intraclass correlation coefficient and 95% confidence intervals. Agreement on individual level was evaluated using the Bland-Altman method with limits of agreement. The data can be valuable in the study of body composition in CKD under all types of treatment and also for agreement analysis among body composition measurements by different instruments and techniques. The data are analysed and interpreted in the research article Bellafronte et al., 2020 [1].

Project description:BackgroundEstablished cardiovascular risk assessment tools lack chronic kidney disease-specific clinical factors and may underestimate cardiovascular risk in non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients.MethodsA retrospective analysis of a cohort of patients with stage 3-5 non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease in the Salford Kidney Study (UK, 2002-2016) was performed. Multivariable Cox regression models with backward selection and repeated measures joint models were used to evaluate clinical risk factors associated with cardiovascular events (individual and composite cardiovascular major adverse cardiovascular events), mortality (all-cause and cardiovascular-specific), and need for renal replacement therapy. Models were established using 70% of the cohort and validated on the remaining 30%. Hazard ratios ([95% CIs]) were reported.ResultsAmong 2192 patients, mean follow-up was 5.6 years. Cardiovascular major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 422 (19.3%) patients; predictors included prior history of diabetes (1.39 [1.13-1.71]; P = 0.002) and serum albumin reduction of 5 g/L (1.20 [1.05-1.36]; P = 0.006). All-cause mortality occurred in 740 (33.4%) patients, median time to death was 3.8 years; predictors included reduction of estimated glomerular filtration of 5 mL/min/1.73 m2 (1.05 [1.01-1.08]; P = 0.011) and increase of phosphate of 0.1 mmol/L (1.04 [1.01-1.08]; P = 0.021), whereas a 10 g/L hemoglobin increase was protective (0.90 [0.85-0.95]; P < 0.001). In 394 (18.0%) patients who received renal replacement therapy, median time to event was 2.3 years; predictors included halving of estimated glomerular filtration rate (3.40 [2.65-4.35]; P < 0.001) and antihypertensive use (1.23 [1.12-1.34]; P < 0.001). Increasing age, albumin reduction, and prior history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease were risk factors for all outcomes except renal replacement therapy.ConclusionsSeveral chronic kidney disease-specific cardiovascular risk factors were associated with increased mortality and cardiovascular event risk in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease.

Project description:ObjectiveTo identify the optimal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at which to initiate dialysis in people with advanced chronic kidney disease.DesignNationwide observational cohort study.SettingNational Swedish Renal Registry of patients referred to nephrologists.ParticipantsPatients had a baseline eGFR between 10 and 20 mL/min/1.73 m2 and were included between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016, with follow-up until 1 June 2017.Main outcome measuresThe strict design criteria of a clinical trial were mimicked by using the cloning, censoring, and weighting method to eliminate immortal time bias, lead time bias, and survivor bias. A dynamic marginal structural model was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and absolute risks for five year all cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke) for 15 dialysis initiation strategies with eGFR values between 4 and 19 mL/min/1.73 m2 in increments of 1 mL/min/1.73 m2. An eGFR between 6 and 7 mL/min/1.73 m2 (eGFR6-7) was taken as the reference.ResultsAmong 10 290 incident patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (median age 73 years; 3739 (36%) women; median eGFR 16.8 mL/min/1.73 m2), 3822 started dialysis, 4160 died, and 2446 had a major adverse cardiovascular event. A parabolic relation was observed for mortality, with the lowest risk for eGFR15-16. Compared with dialysis initiation at eGFR6-7, initiation at eGFR15-16 was associated with a 5.1% (95% confidence interval 2.5% to 6.9%) lower absolute five year mortality risk and 2.9% (0.2% to 5.5%) lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event, corresponding to hazard ratios of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 0.92) and 0.94 (0.91 to 0.98), respectively. This 5.1% absolute risk difference corresponded to a mean postponement of death of 1.6 months over five years of follow-up. However, dialysis would need to be started four years earlier. When emulating the intended strategies of the Initiating Dialysis Early and Late (IDEAL) trial (eGFR10-14 v eGFR5-7) and the achieved eGFRs in IDEAL (eGFR7-10 v eGFR5-7), hazard ratios for all cause mortality were 0.96 (0.94 to 0.99) and 0.97 (0.94 to 1.00), respectively, which are congruent with the findings of the randomised IDEAL trial.ConclusionsVery early initiation of dialysis was associated with a modest reduction in mortality and cardiovascular events. For most patients, such a reduction may not outweigh the burden of a substantially longer period spent on dialysis.

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Dataset Information

The Cardiovascular Literature-Based Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA): Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Non-Dialysis Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease.

Background and objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The Cardiovascular Literature-Based Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA): Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Non-Dialysis Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease.

Similar Datasets

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