National trends and projection of chronic kidney disease incidence according to etiology from 1990 to 2030 in Iran: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health problem worldwide. Predicting CKD incidence rates and case numbers at the national and global levels is vital for planning CKD prevention programs.

Methods

Data on CKD incidence rates and case numbers in Iran from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease online database. The average annual percentage change was computed to determine the temporal trends in CKD age-standardized incidence rates from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the CKD incidence rate and case numbers through 2030.

Results

Nationally, CKD cases increased from 97,300 in 1990 to 315,500 in 2019. The age-specific CKD incidence rate increased from 168.52 per 100,000 to 382.98 per 100,0

SUBMITTER: Shahbazi F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10482568 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature