Dataset Information

Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

ABSTRACT: Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment¹. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs². The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested³. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr^-1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr^-1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr^-1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr^-1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr^-1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

SUBMITTER: Saintilan N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10482694 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

Saintilan Neil N Horton Benjamin B Törnqvist Torbjörn E TE Ashe Erica L EL Khan Nicole S NS Schuerch Mark M Perry Chris C Kopp Robert E RE Garner Gregory G GG Murray Nicholas N Rogers Kerrylee K Albert Simon S Kelleway Jeffrey J Shaw Timothy A TA Woodroffe Colin D CD Lovelock Catherine E CE Goddard Madeline M MM Hutley Lindsay B LB Kovalenko Katya K Feher Laura L Guntenspergen Glenn G

Nature 20230830 7977

Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3 ...[more]

PMID: 37648850

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Project description:West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971-2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre's regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971-2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5-3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.

Dataset Information

Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

Publications

Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

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