Analysis and prediction of improved SEIR transmission dynamics model: taking the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy as an example.

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to predict the transmission trajectory of the 2019 Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) and analyze the impact of preventive measures on the spread of the epidemic. Considering that tracking a long-term epidemic trajectory requires explanatory modeling with more complexities than short-term predictions, an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) transmission dynamic model is established. The model depends on defining various parameters that describe both the virus and the population under study. However, it is likely that several of these parameters will exhibit significant variations among different states. Therefore, regression algorithms and heuristic algorithms were developed to effectively adapt the population-dependent parameters and ensure accurate fitting o

SUBMITTER: Lu M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10484606 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature