Potential applicability of the importation risk index for predicting the risk of rarely imported infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There have been many prediction studies for imported infectious diseases, employing air-travel volume or the importation risk (IR) index, which is the product of travel-volume and disease burden in the source countries, as major predictors. However, there is a lack of studies validating the predictability of the variables especially for infectious diseases that have rarely been reported. In this study, we analyzed the prediction performance of the IR index and air-travel volume to predict disease importation.

Methods

Rabies and African trypanosomiasis were used as target diseases. The list of rabies and African trypanosomiasis importation events, annual air-travel volume between two specific countries, and incidence of rabies and African trypanosomiasis in the sou

SUBMITTER: Min KD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10496286 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature