How much disease risk is due to old age and established risk factors?

ABSTRACT: Improved healthcare is leading to older populations and increasing numbers of individuals experiencing multiple diseases, possibly concurrently (multimorbidity). This article asks whether the observed number of new diseases is more than expected based on age and established risk factors alone, assuming that disease risk is unchanged by prior or pre-existing disease. This is accomplished by designing a new epidemiological approach, where the expected number of disease types are estimated for individuals without prior disease, by combining individual risk predictions with a "Poisson-Binomial" model to estimate the expected number of new diseases and its confidence interval. For 123 diseases in men and 99 diseases in women, the expected number of new diseases based on age and established risk

SUBMITTER: Webster AJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10496869 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature