Bayesian inference for spatio-temporal stochastic transmission of plant disease in the presence of roguing: A case study to characterise the dispersal of Flavescence doree.

ABSTRACT: Estimating the distance at which pathogens disperse from one season to the next is crucial for designing efficient control strategies for invasive plant pathogens and a major milestone in the reduction of pesticide use in agriculture. However, we still lack such estimates for many diseases, especially for insect-vectored pathogens, such as Flavescence dorée (FD). FD is a quarantine disease threatening European vineyards. Its management is based on mandatory insecticide treatments and the removal of infected plants identified during annual surveys. This paper introduces a general statistical framework to model the epidemiological dynamics of FD in a mechanistic manner that can take into account missing hosts in surveyed fields (resulting from infected plant removals). We parameterized the m

SUBMITTER: Adrakey HK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10501664 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature