Time trend of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Western Pacific Region: age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and forecasting for 2044.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Pancreatic cancer poses a serious medical problem worldwide. Countries in the Western Pacific Region are facing public health challenges from cancer. This study assesses the time trends of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2019 and predicts its trend to 2044.

Methods

Mortality data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange. We used an age-period-cohort model to estimate age, period and birth cohort effects on pancreatic cancer mortality from 1990 to 2019 by calculating net drift, local drift, age-specific rate, period rate ratio, and cohort rate ratio. We also predict pancreatic cancer mortality to 2044 in Western Pacific countries.

Results

Overall, there were 178,276 (95% uncertain interval: 157,771 to 198,636)

SUBMITTER: Jiang W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10506228 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature