Uncertainty analysis of contagion processes based on a functional approach.

ABSTRACT: The spread of a disease, product or idea in a population is often hard to predict. We tend to observe one or few realizations of the contagion process and therefore limited information can be obtained for anticipating future similar events. The stochastic nature of contagion generates unpredictable outcomes throughout the whole course of the dynamics. This might lead to important inaccuracies in the predictions and to the over or under-reaction of policymakers, who tend to anticipate the average behavior. Through an extensive simulation study, we analyze properties of the contagion process, focusing on its unpredictability or uncertainty, and exploiting the functional nature of the data. In particular, we define a novel non-parametric measure of variance based on weighted depth-based centr

SUBMITTER: Lopez-Pintado D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10509249 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature