Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health concern that threatens the health of children. Accurately forecasting of HFMD cases multiple days ahead and early detection of peaks in the number of cases followed by timely response are essential for HFMD prevention and control. However, many studies mainly predict future one-day incidence, which reduces the flexibility of prevention and control.

Methods

We collected the daily number of HFMD cases among children aged 0-14 years in Chengdu from 2011 to 2017, as well as meteorological and air pollutant data for the same period. The LSTM, Seq2Seq, Seq2Seq-Luong and Seq2Seq-Shih models were used to perform multi-step prediction of HFMD through multi-input multi-output. We evaluated the models in terms of overall

SUBMITTER: Geng X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10511093 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature