Project description:Paleoceanographic reconstructions show that the strength of North Atlantic currents decreased during the Little Ice Age. In contrast, the role of ocean circulation in climate regulation during earlier historical epochs of the Common Era (C.E.) remains unclear. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the Caribbean Basin for the past 1700 years using the isotopic and elemental composition of planktic foraminifera tests. Centennial-scale SST and salinity variations in the Caribbean co-occur with (hydro)climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere and are linked to a North Atlantic SST forcing. Cold phases around 600, 800, and 1400 to 1600 C.E. are characterized by Caribbean salinification and Gulf of Mexico freshening that implies reductions in the strength of North Atlantic surface circulation. We suggest that the associated changes in the meridional salt advection contributed to the historical climate variability of the C.E.
Project description:Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate.
Project description:The North Atlantic phytoplankton spring bloom is the pinnacle in an annual cycle that is driven by physical, chemical, and biological seasonality. Despite its important contributions to the global carbon cycle, transitions in plankton community composition between the winter and spring have been scarcely examined in the North Atlantic. Phytoplankton composition in early winter was compared with latitudinal transects that captured the subsequent spring bloom climax. Amplicon sequence variants (ASVs), imaging flow cytometry, and flow-cytometry provided a synoptic view of phytoplankton diversity. Phytoplankton communities were not uniform across the sites studied, but rather mapped with apparent fidelity onto subpolar- and subtropical-influenced water masses of the North Atlantic. At most stations, cells < 20-µm diameter were the main contributors to phytoplankton biomass. Winter phytoplankton communities were dominated by cyanobacteria and pico-phytoeukaryotes. These transitioned to more diverse and dynamic spring communities in which pico- and nano-phytoeukaryotes, including many prasinophyte algae, dominated. Diatoms, which are often assumed to be the dominant phytoplankton in blooms, were contributors but not the major component of biomass. We show that diverse, small phytoplankton taxa are unexpectedly common in the western North Atlantic and that regional influences play a large role in modulating community transitions during the seasonal progression of blooms.
Project description:Dinoflagellate species belonging to the genera Gambierdiscus and Fukuyoa produce ciguatoxins (CTXs), potent neurotoxins that concentrate in fish causing ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) in humans. While the structures and toxicities of ciguatoxins isolated from fish in the Pacific and Caribbean are known, there are few data on the variation in toxicity between and among species of Gambierdiscus and Fukuyoa. Quantifying the differences in species-specific toxicity is especially important to developing an effective cell-based risk assessment strategy for CFP. This study analyzed the ciguatoxicity of 33 strains representing seven Gambierdiscus and one Fukuyoa species using a cell based Neuro-2a cytotoxicity assay. All strains were isolated from either the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The average toxicity of each species was inversely proportional to growth rate, suggesting an evolutionary trade-off between an investment in growth versus the production of defensive compounds. While there is 2- to 27-fold variation in toxicity within species, there was a 1740-fold difference between the least and most toxic species. Consequently, production of CTX or CTX-like compounds is more dependent on the species present than on the random occurrence of high or low toxicity strains. Seven of the eight species tested (G. belizeanus, G. caribaeus, G. carolinianus, G. carpenteri, Gambierdiscus ribotype 2, G. silvae and F. ruetzleri) exhibited low toxicities, ranging from 0 to 24.5 fg CTX3C equivalents cell-1, relative to G. excentricus, which had a toxicity of 469 fg CTX3C eq. cell-1. Isolates of G. excentricus from other regions have shown similarly high toxicities. If the hypothesis that G. excentricus is the primary source of ciguatoxins in the Atlantic is confirmed, it should be possible to identify areas where CFP risk is greatest by monitoring only G. excentricus abundance using species-specific molecular assays.
Project description:The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.
Project description:Understanding the effects of global climate disruption on biodiversity is important to future conservation efforts. While taxonomic diversity is widely studied, functional diversity of plants, and recently animals, is receiving increasing attention. Most studies of mammals are short-term, focus on temperate habitats, and rely on traits described in the literature rather than generating traits from observations. Unlike previous studies, this long-term field study assessed the factors driving the functional and taxonomic diversity of small-mammal assemblages in dry tropical forests using both traits recorded from literature and a demographic database. We assessed the drivers (abundance and biomass, temperature and rainfall) of taxonomic richness and functional diversity for two rain-driven seasons in two adjacent but distinct forests-upland and lowland (arroyo or riparian) forests. Our analysis found that rainfall, both seasonal and atypical, was the primary factor driving functional and taxonomic diversity of small-mammal assemblages. Functional responses differed between the two types of forests, however, with effects being stronger in the harsher conditions of the upland forests than in the less severe conditions prevailing in the arroyo (riparian) forest. The latter also supports a richer, more diverse, and more stable small-mammal assemblage. These findings highlight the importance of climate to tropical biological diversity, as extreme climate events (hurricanes, droughts and floods) and disruption of rainfall patterns were shown to decrease biodiversity. They also support the need to preserve these habitats, as their high taxonomic diversity and functional redundancy makes them resilient against global climate disruption and local extreme events. Tropical dry forests constitute a potential reservoir for biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. Unfortunately, these forests are among the most endangered terrestrial ecosystems because of deforestation and the likely impacts of global climate disruption.
Project description:The North Atlantic Ocean hosts the largest volume of global subtropical mode waters (STMWs) in the world, which serve as heat, carbon and oxygen silos in the ocean interior. STMWs are formed in the Gulf Stream region where thermal fronts are pervasive and result in feedback with the atmosphere. However, their roles in STMW formation have been overlooked. Using eddy-resolving global climate simulations, we find that suppressing local frontal-scale ocean-to-atmosphere (FOA) feedback leads to STMW formation being reduced almost by half. This is because FOA feedback enlarges STMW outcropping, attributable to the mixed layer deepening associated with cumulative excessive latent heat loss due to higher wind speeds and greater air-sea humidity contrast driven by the Gulf Stream fronts. Such enhanced heat loss overshadows the stronger restratification induced by vertical eddies and turbulent heat transport, making STMW colder and heavier. With more realistic representation of FOA feedback, the eddy-present/rich coupled global climate models reproduce the observed STMWs much better than the eddy-free ones. Such improvement in STMW production cannot be achieved, even with the oceanic resolution solely refined but without coupling to the overlying atmosphere in oceanic general circulation models. Our findings highlight the need to resolve FOA feedback to ameliorate the common severe underestimation of STMW and associated heat and carbon uptakes in earth system models.
Project description:The modern effect of climate on plants and animals is well documented. Some have cautioned against assigning climate a direct role in Cenozoic land mammal faunal changes. We illustrate 3 episodes of significant mammalian reorganization in the Eocene of North America that are considered direct responses to dramatic climatic events. The first episode occurred during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), beginning the Eocene (55.8 Ma), and earliest Wasatchian North American Land Mammal Age (NALMA). The PETM documents a short (<170 k.y.) global temperature increase of approximately 5 degrees C and a substantial increase in first appearances of mammals traced to climate-induced immigration. A 4-m.y. period of climatic and evolutionary stasis then ensued. The second climate episode, the late early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO, 53-50 Ma), is marked by a temperature increase to the highest prolonged Cenozoic ocean temperature and a similarly distinctive continental interior mean annual temperature (MAT) of 23 degrees C. This MAT increase [and of mean annual precipitation (MAP) to 150 cm/y) promoted a major increase in floral diversity and habitat complexity under temporally unique, moist, paratropical conditions. Subsequent climatic deterioration in a third interval, from 50 to 47 Ma, resulted in major faunal diversity loss at both continental and local scales. In this Bridgerian Crash, relative abundance shifted from very diverse, evenly represented, communities to those dominated by the condylarth Hyopsodus. Rather than being "optimum," the EECO began the greatest episode of faunal turnover of the first 15 m.y. of the Cenozoic.
Project description:Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.
Project description:In this review, we describe the effects of global climate change for one specific pathogen: the parasite Toxoplasma gondii. It is postulated that an increase of T. gondii prevalence in humans can occur in some regions of North-Western Europe as a result of changing environmental conditions. Such a change can be predicted by using Global Climate Change models. We have elaborated such a prediction for one scenario (SRES A1) by using one specific model (CCSR/NRIES) as an example. Next to environmental factors, also anthropogenic factors may contribute to increased prevalence of T. gondii in this region. In order to counter the potential severe consequences of a potential increase resulting from the combination of climatic and anthropogenic factors, there is an urgent need for the development of a human vaccine. Until a vaccine that offers complete protection is developed, the emphasis should be on treatment optimization and prevention.