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Inferring China's excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic using online mourning and funeral search volume.

ABSTRACT: We construct a mourning and funeral index, using online search volume for "wreath and elegiac couplet", "obituary", "mortuary house", "cinerary casket", "cremation" and "pass away", to infer excess cases of mortality in China during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the 3-month period (December 2022-February 2023) after China ended its Zero-COVID policy, there were around 712 thousand excess cases of mortality. These excess cases of mortality, bench marked against the 2-year period preceding the pandemic, could be directly or indirectly related to COVID-19. During the 35-month Zero-COVID regime (January 2020-November 2022), the excess death toll was a negative 1480 thousand. Overall, by delaying the surge in infections, China might have saved 767 thousand lives. While these estimates are based on various assumptions and can be imprecise, China's COVID-19 experience could reasonably be characterized by a sharp surge in deaths after its departure from Zero-COVID and a steady pattern of lives saved during the Zero-COVID regime.

SUBMITTER: Huang L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10511516 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Inferring China's excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic using online mourning and funeral search volume.

Huang Li L Li Oliver Zhen OZ Yin Ximing X

Scientific reports 20230920 1

We construct a mourning and funeral index, using online search volume for "wreath and elegiac couplet", "obituary", "mortuary house", "cinerary casket", "cremation" and "pass away", to infer excess cases of mortality in China during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the 3-month period (December 2022-February 2023) after China ended its Zero-COVID policy, there were around 712 thousand excess cases of mortality. These excess cases of mortality, bench marked against the 2-year period preceding the pan ...[more]

PMID: 37730765

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the ongoing epidemics of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have affected the mortality trend of the nation, the national level assessment of excess mortality (changes in overall mortality in the entire population) is still scarce in Korea. Therefore, this study evaluated the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea using the certified mortality data.MethodsMonthly mortality and population data from January 2013 to June 2022 was obtained from the National Health Insurance Service database and Statistics Korea. A quasi-Poisson interrupted time-series model adjusted for age structure, population, seasonality, and long-term trends was used to estimate the counterfactual projections (expected) of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 to June 2022). The absolute difference (observed-expected) and ratio (observed / expected) of mortality were calculated. Stratified analysis based on pandemic years (years 2020, 2021, and 2022), sex, and age groups (aged 0-4, 5-19, 20-64, and ≥ 65 years) were conducted.ResultsAn 8.7% increase in mortality was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic [absolute difference: 61,277 persons; ratio (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.087 (1.066, 1.107)]. The gap between observed and estimated mortality became wider with continuation of the pandemic [ratio (95% CI), year 2020: 1.021 (1.003, 1.040); year 2021: 1.060 (1.039, 1.080), year 2022: 1.244 (1.219, 1.270)]. Although excess mortality across sex was similar, the adult [aged 20-64, ratio (95% CI): 1.059 (1.043, 1.076)] and elderly [aged 65-, ratio (95% CI): 1.098 (1.062, 1.135)] population showed increased excess mortality during the pandemic.ConclusionsDespite Korea's successful quarantine policy response, the continued epidemic has led to an excess mortality. The estimated mortality exceeded the number of deaths from COVID-19 infection. Excess mortality should be monitored to estimate the overall impact of the pandemic on a nation.

Dataset Information

Inferring China's excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic using online mourning and funeral search volume.

Publications

Inferring China's excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic using online mourning and funeral search volume.

Similar Datasets

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