Dataset Information

The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study analyzes the effect of the Brazilian National Oral Health Policy (NOHP) on oral cancer mortality rates (OCMR).

Method

This is an ecological study with secondary oral cancer death data, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Annual death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (1996-2019). The outcome was the OCMR, standardized by gender and age We considered the NOHP, categorized as "0" (before its implementation), from 1996 to 2004, and "1 to 15", from 2005 to 2019. ARIMA modeling was carried out for temporal analysis, and regression coefficient estimation (RC).

Results

The Brazilian NOHP implementation was associated with an increase in OCMR in the North region (CR = 0.16; p = 0.022) and with a decrease in the Southeast region (CR = -0.04; p<0.001), but did not affect the other macro-regions nor Brazil. The forecast models estimated an increase in OCMR for the North, and Northeast, a decrease for the Southeast, and stability for the South and Brazil.

Conclusion

The Brazilian NOHP is not being effective in reducing the OCMR. The trends behaved differently in the Brazilian territory, highlighting health inequities. We recommend that the NOHP strengthen the oral health care network, incorporating oral cancer as a notifiable disease, adopting strategies for prevention, screening, and providing opportunities for early treatment of the disease.

SUBMITTER: Costa EM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10513197 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

Costa Elisa Miranda EM Magalhães Rodrigues Elisa Santos ES de Sousa Francenilde Silva FS Pimentel Felipe Bezerra FB Sodré Lopes Mariana Borges MB Vissoci João Ricardo Nickenig JRN Thomaz Erika Barbara Abreu Fonseca EBAF

PloS one 20230921 9

<h4>Objective</h4>This study analyzes the effect of the Brazilian National Oral Health Policy (NOHP) on oral cancer mortality rates (OCMR).<h4>Method</h4>This is an ecological study with secondary oral cancer death data, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Annual death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (1996-2019). The outcome was the OCMR, standardized by gender and age We considered the NOHP, categorized as "0" (befo ...[more]

PMID: 37733703

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Dataset Information

The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

Objective

Method

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

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