Assessing the reliability of the CD4 depletion model in the presence of Ending the HIV Epidemic initiatives.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Accurate estimates of HIV incidence are necessary to monitor progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative targets (90% decline by 2030). U.S. incidence estimates are derived from a CD4 depletion model (CD4 model). We performed simulation-based analyses to investigate the ability of this model to estimate HIV incidence when implementing EHE interventions that have the potential to shorten the duration between HIV infection and diagnosis (diagnosis delay).

Methods

Our simulation study evaluates the impact of three parameters on the accuracy of incidence estimates derived from the CD4 model: rate of HIV incidence decline, length of diagnosis delay, and sensitivity of using CD4 + cell counts to identify new infections (recency error). We model HIV inciden

SUBMITTER: Tang ME 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10524824 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature