Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990-2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach.

ABSTRACT: With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015-2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990-2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of -2.6% (95% CI -2.7; -2.5). North

SUBMITTER: Onambele L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10528291 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature