Estimating age-stratified transmission and reproduction numbers during the early exponential phase of an epidemic: A case study with COVID-19 data.

ABSTRACT: In a pending pandemic, early knowledge of age-specific disease parameters, e.g., susceptibility, infectivity, and the clinical fraction (the fraction of infections coming to clinical attention), supports targeted public health responses like school closures or sequestration of the elderly. The earlier the knowledge, the more useful it is, so the present article examines an early phase of many epidemics, exponential growth. Using age-stratified COVID-19 case counts collected in Canada, China, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom before April 23, 2020, we present a linear analysis of the exponential phase that attempts to estimate the age-specific disease parameters given above. Some combinations of the parameters can be estimated by requiring that they change smoothly with

SUBMITTER: Stanke Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10528737 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature