External validation of models for predicting cumulative live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF treatment.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ratna MB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10546080 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
External validation of models for predicting cumulative live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF treatment.
Ratna Mariam B MB Bhattacharya Siladitya S McLernon David J DJ
Human reproduction (Oxford, England) 20231001 10
<h4>Study question</h4>Can two prediction models developed using data from 1999 to 2009 accurately predict the cumulative probability of live birth per woman over multiple complete cycles of IVF in an updated UK cohort?<h4>Summary answer</h4>After being updated, the models were able to estimate individualized chances of cumulative live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF with greater accuracy.<h4>What is known already</h4>The McLernon models were the first to predict cumulative live birth ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:In order to find out to what extent ovarian aging could be compensated by the in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatments, a total of 4102 women above the age of 35 undergoing 6489 complete cycles from 2009 to 2015 with follow-up visits until 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Cumulative live birth rates (CLBRs) across multiple IVF/ICSI cycles were compared in the study population stratified by age and ovarian reserve (classified by the POSEIDON criteria). Younger patients (aged between 35 and 40) could well benefit from repeat IVF treatments, with the optimal CLBRs ranging from 62%-72% for up to four complete cycles. However, the CLBRs sharply declined to 7.7%-40% in older patients (>40yrs). In light of ovarian reserve, the optimal-estimated-four-cycle CLBR of younger patients (35-40yrs) in POSEIDON group 2 could approached to those with normal ovarian response (non-POSEIDON), with 57.3%-70% versus 74.5%-81% respectively. However, the CLBR of older patients (>40yrs) in POSEIDON group 2 only reached 50% of their counterparts. Extending the number of IVF cycles beyond three or four is effective for advanced-aged women, especially in younger normal responders (non-POSEIDON) and unexpected poor/suboptimal responders (POSEIDON group 2). The real turning point at which female fecundity dropped after multiple IVF cycles is at the age of 40.
| S-EPMC8202897 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to describe the cumulative live birth rates (CLBRs) of young women with or without low prognosis according to the POSEIDON criteria after IVF/ICSI cycles and to investigate whether the diagnosis of low prognosis increases the risk of abnormal birth outcomes.DesignRetrospective study.SettingA single reproductive medicine center.PopulationFrom January 2016 to October 2020, there were 17,893 patients (<35 years) involved. After screening, 4,105 women were included in POSEIDON group 1, 1,375 women were included in POSEIDON group 3, and 11,876 women were defined as non-POSEIDON.InterventionsBaseline serum AMH level was measured on the D2-D3 of menstrual cycle before IVF/ICSI treatment.Main outcome measuresCumulative live birth rate (CLBR), birth outcomes.ResultsAfter four stimulation cycles, the CLBRs in POSEIDON group 1, POSEIDON group 3, and non-POSEIDON group reached 67.9% (95% CI, 66.5%-69.3%), 51.9% (95% CI, 49.2%-54.5%), and 79.6% (95% CI, 78.9%-80.3%), respectively. There was no difference in gestational age, preterm delivery, cesarean delivery, and low birth weight infants between the three groups, but macrosomia was significantly higher in non-POSEIDON group, after adjusting for maternal age and BMI.ConclusionsThe POSEIDON group shows lower CLBRs than the non-POSEIDON group in young women, while the risk of abnormal birth outcomes in the POSEIDON group will not increase.
| S-EPMC10098357 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recently, perinatal outcomes and cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) have widely been utilized to assess the fertility outcomes and safety of assisted reproductive technology (ART), but more robust research is needed to address the success rates of live-healthy births resulting from this procedure, particularly for patients with low prognosis. This study aims to assess and comparative perinatal outcomes and CLBR per cycle of in vitro fertilization/Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) between four groups of low prognosis characterized by POSEIDON criteria. A retrospective assessment was done among infertile women with a low prognosis undergoing IVF/ICSI at a reproductive center in China. Data were collected between January 2011 and December 2015 with a follow-up of at least two years, and censoring was defined by three-cycle completion, discontinuation, or having a live birth. Participants were grouped into 4 groups according to the POSEIDON classification (POSEIDON1, POSEIDON2, POSEIDON3, and POSEIDON4). The main outcomes were perinatal and obstetric outcomes with CLBR per cycle after IVF/ICSI procedure. And IVF/ICSI-technique outcomes as a secondary outcome. Statistical analyses were performed by SPSS, and a p value of < 0.05 was considered significant. A total of 461 eligible participants underwent a total of 825 IVF/ICSI cycles. POSEIDON1 had the best perinatal outcomes in terms of live births (≥ 28w) (54.8%). POSEIDON4 had a higher risk for perinatal and obstetric complications with abortion rate (9.8%); LBW (11.7%), PTD (23.5%), PROM (11.7%), and gestational diabetes (17.6%). POSEIDON2 had a high rate for malpresentation (14.2%), and cesarean delivery(57.2%), while POSEIDON3 was much associated with the occurrences of placenta previa (9.3%) compared to other groups (p value = 0.001). After adjusting odds ratio by age and BMI, POSEIDON4 had the least odds for biochemical pregnancy (p value = 0.019); and the least odds for clinical pregnancy (p value = 0.001) of the four groups. CLBR per cycle was better in POSEIDON1 and increased with an increasing number of cycles in all groups during the three cycles. Conservative CLBR after three complete cycles were 77.27%, 42.52%, 51.4% and 22.34%, while optimistic CLBR were 79.01%, 51.19%, 58.59% and 34.46% in POSEIDON1 to POSEIDON4, respectively. Younger women with low prognosis and normal ovarian reserve have a higher probability for live births and better perinatal outcomes compared with older women with poor or normal ovarian reserve. Besides, young women with low prognosis, despite ovarian reserve status, can increase their probability of conception and get relatively higher CLBR by undergoing multiple cycles of IVF/ICSI. Age is therefore considered as a critical parameter in predicting the perinatal outcome and CLBR.
| S-EPMC7366673 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study questionHas cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) improved over time and which factors are associated with such an improvement?Summary answerDuring an 11-year period, 2007-2017, CLBR per oocyte aspiration increased significantly, from 27.0% to 36.3%, in parallel with an increase in blastocyst transfer and cryopreservation by vitrification.What is known alreadyWhile it has been shown that live birth rate (LBR) per embryo transfer (ET) is higher for fresh blastocyst than for fresh cleavage stage embryo transfer, CLBR per oocyte aspiration, including one fresh ET and all subsequent frozen embryo transfers (FET), does not seem to differ between the two culture strategies.Study design size durationA national register study including all oocyte aspirations performed in Sweden from 2007 to 2017 (n = 124 700 complete IVF treatment cycles) was carried out. Oocyte donation cycles were excluded.Participants/materials setting methodsData were retrieved from the Swedish National Registry of Assisted Reproduction (Q-IVF) on all oocyte aspirations during the study period where autologous oocytes were used. CLBR was defined as the proportion of deliveries with at least one live birth per oocyte aspiration, including all fresh and/or frozen embryo transfers within 1 year, until one delivery with a live birth or until all embryos were used, whichever occurred first. The delivery of a singleton, twin, or other multiples was registered as one delivery. Cryopreservation of cleavage stage embryos was performed by slow freezing and of blastocyst by vitrification.Main results and the role of chanceIn total, 124 700 oocyte aspirations were performed (in 61 313 women), with 65 304 aspirations in women <35 years and 59 396 in women ≥ 35 years, resulting in 38 403 deliveries with live born children. Overall, the CLBR per oocyte aspiration increased significantly during the study period, from 27.0% to 36.3% (odds ratio (OR) 1.039, 95% CI 1.035-1.043) and from 30.0% to 43.3% if at least one ET was performed (adjusted OR 1.055, 95% CI 1.050-1.059). The increase in CLBR was independent of maternal age, number of oocytes retrieved and number of previous IVF live births. The CLBR for women <35 and ≥35 years both increased significantly, following the same pattern. During the study period, a substantially increasing number of blastocyst transfers was performed, both in fresh and in FET cycles. Other important predicting factors for live birth, such as number of embryos transferred, could not explain the improvement. An increased single embryo transfer rate was observed with time.Limitations reasons for cautionThe retrospective design implicates that other confounders of importance for CLBR cannot be ruled out. In addition, some FET cycles might be performed later than 1 year post oocyte aspiration for the last year (2017) and are, thus, not included in this study. In addition, no data on 'dropouts', i.e. patients that do not continue their treatment despite having cryopreserved embryos, are available, or if this drop-out rate has changed over time.Wider implications of the findingsThe results suggest that blastocyst transfer, particularly when used in FET cycles and in combination with vitrification, is an important contributor to the improved live birth rates over time. This gives a possibility for a lower number of oocyte aspirations needed to achieve a live birth and a shortened time to live birth.Study funding/competing interestsThe study was financed by grants from the Swedish state under the agreement between the Swedish government and the county councils, the ALF-agreement (ALFGBG-70940) and by Hjalmar Svensson's research foundation. None of the authors declares any conflict of interest.
| S-EPMC8240131 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeChromosomal polymorphisms are associated with infertility, but their effects on assisted reproductive outcomes are still quite conflicting, especially after IVF treatment. This study evaluated the role of chromosomal polymorphisms of different genders in IVF pregnancy outcomes.MethodsFour hundred and twenty-five infertile couples undergoing IVF treatment were divided into three groups: 214 couples with normal chromosomes (group A, control group), 86 couples with female polymorphisms (group B), and 125 couples with male polymorphisms (group C). The pregnancy outcomes after the first and cumulative transfer cycles were analyzed, and the main outcome measures were live birth rate (LBR) after the first transfer cycle and cumulative LBR after a complete IVF cycle.ResultsComparison of pregnancy outcomes after the first transfer cycle within group A, group B, and group C demonstrated a similar LBR as well as other rates of implantation, clinical pregnancy, early miscarriage, and ongoing pregnancy (P > 0.05). However, the analysis of cumulative pregnancy outcomes indicated that compared with group A, group C had a significantly lower LBR per cycle (80.4 vs 68.00%), for a rate ratio of 1.182 (95% CI 1.030 to 1.356, P = 0.01) and a significantly higher cumulative early miscarriage rate (EMR) among clinical pregnancies (7.2 vs 14.7%), for a rate ratio of 0.489 (95% CI 0.248 to 0.963, P = 0.035).ConclusionCouples with chromosomal polymorphisms in only male partners have poor pregnancy outcomes after IVF treatment manifesting as high cumulative EMR and low LBR after a complete cycle.
| S-EPMC5533681 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe use of cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) per ovarian stimulation cycle is proving to be an accurate method to calculate the success of IVF; however, the cycle outcome is closely associated with the number of embryos transferred (ET). Our aim was to report CLBR after IVF according to the number of embryos required to achieve a live birth in women aged ≥35 years, considering age, body mass index (BMI), and ethnicity.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study including 1344 patients who underwent IVF between January 2013 and June 2016 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University. The cumulative probability of live birth for each couple was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and survival curves were compared according to age, BMI, and ethnicity using the log-rank test.ResultsCLBR increased rapidly from 1 to 5 ETs, moderately from 6 to 10 ETs, and slowly thereafter. CLBR was significantly different across 4 categories based on BMI as well as across those based on age; low CLBR was significantly associated with the age of ≥42 years and obesity.ConclusionThe association between CLBR and number of ET provides realistic and precise information regarding the success of IVF and can be applied to guide clinicians and patients.
| S-EPMC6617928 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PURPOSE:To investigate the cumulative live birth (cLB) rate of one complete freeze-all-IVF cycle in a general infertile population and to investigate patient and treatment variables that predict blastocyst development and live birth (LB). METHOD:In a retrospective observational study, the data of all IVF cycles performed between 1 February 2015 and 31 January 2016 at a single IVF centre was investigated. In the study, patient-couples were followed up for 18 months following oocyte retrieval. After exclusions, the patient and treatment variables of 1582 patient-couples who underwent treatment were included in the analyses. RESULTS:The median time interval between the oocyte retrieval attempt and the frozen embryo transfer (FET) in which LB was achieved was 38.0 (35.0-67.0) days. The variables of freeze-all-IVF cycles with single blastocyst FET selected by multiple logistic regression to predict LB significantly were female age, infertility duration, FET number (i.e. 1st, 2nd, or ??3rd FET), and blastocyst quality. In a regression adjusting for female age, the number of blastocysts transferred, and oocyte number group (1-3, 4-9, 10-15, and >?15), none of the oocyte number groups were selected to predict LB of 1st FET, significantly. While the per transfer LB rates decreased linearly from the 1st (56.5%) to the 3rd (36.4%) FET, the cLB rate increased from 47.3% after the 1st FET to 55.0% after a 3rd possible FET. CONCLUSION:The cLB rate of one complete freeze-all-IVF cycle of a general infertile population, with 18-month follow-up, was 55.0%. In freeze-all-IVF, ovarian reserve variables were not selected by regression models to predict LB, significantly.
| S-EPMC6504993 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To determine the live birth and cumulative live birth rates of expected poor ovarian responders according to the Bologna criteria and to compare their outcomes with those of expected normal responders.Retrospective analysis.University infertility clinic.A total of 1,152 subfertile women undergoing their first in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycle.Women were classified into 4 groups according to the Bologna criteria for comparison.Live birth and cumulative live birth rates.Women with expected poor response (POR) had the lowest live birth rate than the other 3 groups (23.8%, p = 0.031). Cumulative live birth rates were significantly lower in those with expected POR than those with expected normal ovarian response (NOR) (35.8% vs 62.8%, p<0.0001). In the subgroup analysis, the cumulative live birth rates in expected PORs were significantly lower in those who had ≤3 oocytes retrieved (18.6% for ≤3 oocytes vs 44.0% for >3 oocytes, p = 0.006) whereas the live birth rates in fresh cycle did not differ (17.8% vs 30.9%, p = 0.108).Women who were expected POR according to the Bologna criteria had lower live birth and cumulative live birth than expected NOR but they still can achieve reasonable treatment outcomes and IVF treatment should not be precluded.
| S-EPMC4351960 | biostudies-other
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9433837 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo evaluate the impact of preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A) on cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) in IVF cycles.MethodsRetrospective cohort study of the SART CORS database, comparing CLBR for patients using autologous oocytes, with or without PGT-A. The first reported autologous ovarian stimulation cycle per patient between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2015, and all linked embryo transfer cycles between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2016, were included in the study. Exclusion criteria were donor oocyte cycles, donor embryo cycles, gestational carrier cycles, cycles which included both a fresh embryo transfer (ET) combined with a thawed embryo previously frozen (ET plus FET), or cycles with a fresh ET after PGT-A.ResultsA total of 133,494 autologous IVF cycles were analyzed. Amongst patients who had blastocysts available for either ET or PGT-A, including those without transferrable embryos, decreased CLBR was noted in the PGT-A group at all ages, except ages > 40 (p < 0.01). A subgroup analysis of only those patients who had PGT-A and a subsequent FET, excluding those without transferrable embryos, demonstrated a very high CLBR, ranging from 71.2% at age < 35 to 50.2% at age > 42. Rates of multiple gestations, preterm birth, early pregnancy loss, and low birth weight were all greater in the non-PGT-A group.ConclusionsPGT-A was associated with decreased CLBR amongst all patients who had blastocysts available for ET or PGT-A, except those aged > 40. The negative association of PGT-A use and CLBR per cycle start was especially pronounced at age < 35.
| S-EPMC9840738 | biostudies-literature