Incongruent HIV and tuberculosis co-dynamics in Kenya: interacting epidemics monitor each other.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Kenya is heralded as an example of declining HIV in Africa, while its tuberculosis (TB) numbers continue rising. We conducted a comparative investigation of TB-HIV co-dynamics in Africa to determine the likelihood of reported trends.

Methods and results

Our mathematical modeling analysis exposes the notable incongruence of reported trends in Kenya because TB-HIV co-dynamics, tightly knit worldwide and most dramatically in sub-Saharan Africa, suggest that declining HIV trends should trigger reductions in TB trends. Moreover, a continental-scale analysis of TB-HIV trends places Kenya as an outlier in eastern and southern Africa, and shows TB outpacing HIV in western central Africa. We further investigate which TB processes across HIV stages have greater potential to

SUBMITTER: Sanchez MS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10548337 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature