Secular Trends in Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Attributable to Dietary Carcinogens From 1990 to 2019 and Projections Until 2044 in China: Population-Based Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Little is known about trends in or projections of the disease burden of dietary gastric and esophageal cancer (GEC) in China.

Objective

We aim to report GEC deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, predict them through 2044, and decompose changes in terms of population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes.

Methods

We retrieved dietary GEC data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database and used joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models to analyze trends in dietary GEC deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 in China. We used a Bayesian age period cohort model of integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the disease burden of GEC through 2044 and obtained the estimated population of China

SUBMITTER: Guo HX 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10556999 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature