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A comparison of COVID-19 incidence rates across six European countries in 2021.

ABSTRACT: International comparisons of COVID-19 incidence rates have helped gain insights into the characteristics of the disease, benchmark disease impact, shape public health measures and inform potential travel restrictions and border control measures. However, these comparisons may be biased by differences in COVID-19 surveillance systems and approaches to reporting in each country. To better understand these differences and their impact on incidence comparisons, we collected data on surveillance systems from six European countries: Belgium, England, France, Italy, Romania and Sweden. Data collected included: target testing populations, access to testing, case definitions, data entry and management and statistical approaches to incidence calculation. Average testing, incidence and contextual data were also collected. Data represented the surveillance systems as they were in mid-May 2021. Overall, important differences between surveillance systems were detected. Results showed wide variations in testing rates, access to free testing and the types of tests recorded in national databases, which may substantially limit incidence comparability. By systematically including testing information when comparing incidence rates, these comparisons may be greatly improved. New indicators incorporating testing or existing indicators such as death or hospitalisation will be important to improving international comparisons.

SUBMITTER: Padget M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10557383 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A comparison of COVID-19 incidence rates across six European countries in 2021.

Padget Michael M Adam Pauline P Dorfmuller Marina M Blondel Clara C Campos-Matos Ines I Fayad Myriam M Mateo-Urdiales Alberto A Mesher David D Pistol Adriana A Rebolledo Javiera J Riccardo Flavia F Riess Maximilian M Rusu Lavinia Cipriana LC Che Didier D Coignard Bruno B

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20231001 40

International comparisons of COVID-19 incidence rates have helped gain insights into the characteristics of the disease, benchmark disease impact, shape public health measures and inform potential travel restrictions and border control measures. However, these comparisons may be biased by differences in COVID-19 surveillance systems and approaches to reporting in each country. To better understand these differences and their impact on incidence comparisons, we collected data on surveillance syst ...[more]

PMID: 37796443

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Project description:BackgroundThe purpose of this analysis was to assess the variations in COVID-19 related mortality in relation to the time differences in the commencement of virus circulation and containment measures in the European Region.MethodsThe data for the current analysis (N = 50 countries) were retrieved from the John Hopkins University dataset on the 7th of May 2020, with countries as study units. A piecewise regression analysis was conducted with mortality and cumulative incidence rates introduced as dependent variables and time interval (days from the 22nd of January to the date when 100 first cases were reported) as the main predictor. The country average life expectancy at birth and outpatient contacts per person per year were statistically adjusted for in the regression model.ResultsMortality and incidence were strongly and inversely intercorrelated with days from January 22, respectively -0.83 (p<0.001) and -0.73 (p<0.001). Adjusting for average life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year, between days 33 to 50 from the 22nd of the January, the average mortality rate decreased by 30.1/million per day (95% CI: 22.7, 37.6, p<0.001). During interval 51 to 73 days, the change in mortality was no longer statistically significant but still showed a decreasing trend. A similar relationship with time interval was found for incidence. Life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year were not associated with mortality rate.ConclusionCountries in Europe that had the earliest COVID-19 circulation suffered the worst consequences in terms of health outcomes, specifically mortality. The drastic social isolation measures, quickly undertaken in response to those initial outbreaks appear effective, especially in Eastern European countries, where community circulation started after March 11th. The study demonstrates that efforts to delay the early spread of the virus may have saved an average 30 deaths daily per one million inhabitants.

Project description:AimTo evaluate the effect of vaccination/booster administration dynamics on the reduction of excess mortality during COVID-19 infection waves in European countries.MethodsWe selected twenty-nine countries from the OurWorldInData project database according to their population size of more than one million and the availability of information on dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants during COVID-19 infection waves. After selection, we categorized countries according to their "faster" or "slower" vaccination rates. The first category included countries that reached 60% of vaccinated residents by October 2021 and 70% by January 2022. The second or "slower" category included all other countries. In the first or "faster" category, two groups, "boosters faster'' and "boosters slower" were created. Pearson correlation analysis, linear regression, and chi-square test for categorical data were used to identify the association between vaccination rate and excess mortality. We chose time intervals corresponding to the dominance of viral variants: Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1/2.Results and discussionThe "faster" countries, as opposed to the "slower" ones, did better in protecting their residents from mortality during all periods of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and even before vaccination. Perhaps higher GDP per capita contributed to their better performance throughout the pandemic. During mass vaccination, when the Delta variant prevailed, the contrast in mortality rates between the "faster" and "slower" categories was strongest. The average excess mortality in the "slower" countries was nearly 5 times higher than in the "faster" countries, and the odds ratio (OR) was 4.9 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.4). Slower booster rates were associated with significantly higher mortality during periods dominated by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, with an OR of 2.6 (CI 95%. 2.1 to 3.3). Among the European countries we analyzed, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland did best, with a pandemic mortality rate of 0.1% of the population or less. By comparison, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Russia had a much higher mortality rate of up to 1% of the population.ConclusionThus, slow vaccination and booster administration was a major factor contributing to an order of magnitude higher excess mortality in "slower" European countries compared to more rapidly immunized countries.

Project description:Aim To evaluate the effect of vaccination/booster administration dynamics on the reduction of excess mortality during COVID-19 infection waves in European countries. Methods We selected twenty-nine countries from the OurWorldInData project database according to their population size of more than one million and the availability of information on dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants during COVID-19 infection waves. After selection, we categorized countries according to their ″faster″ or ″slower″ vaccination rates. The first category included countries that reached 60% of vaccinated residents by October 2021 and 70% by January 2022. The second or ″slower″ category included all other countries. In the first or ″faster″ category, two groups, ″boosters faster'' and ″boosters slower″ were created. Pearson correlation analysis, linear regression, and chi-square test for categorical data were used to identify the association between vaccination rate and excess mortality. We chose time intervals corresponding to the dominance of viral variants: Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1/2. Results The ″faster″ countries, as opposed to the ″slower″ ones, did better in protecting their residents from mortality during all periods of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and even before vaccination. Perhaps higher GDP per capita contributed to their better performance throughout the pandemic. During mass vaccination, when the Delta variant prevailed, the contrast in mortality rates between the ″faster″ and ″slower″ categories was strongest. The average excess mortality in the ″slower″ countries was nearly 5 times higher than in the ″faster″ countries, and the odds ratio (OR) was 4.9 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.4). Slower booster rates were associated with significantly higher mortality during periods dominated by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, with an OR of 2.6 (CI 95%. 2.1 to 3.3). Among the European countries we analyzed, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland did best, with a pandemic mortality rate of 0.1% of the population or less. By comparison, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Russia had a much higher mortality rate of up to 1% of the population. Thus, slow vaccination and booster administration was a major factor contributing to an order of magnitude higher excess mortality in ″slower″ European countries compared to more rapidly immunized countries.

Dataset Information

A comparison of COVID-19 incidence rates across six European countries in 2021.

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A comparison of COVID-19 incidence rates across six European countries in 2021.

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