Dataset Information

Have We Been Underestimating Modifiable Dementia Risk? An Alternative Approach for Calculating the Combined Population Attributable Fraction for Modifiable Dementia Risk Factors.

ABSTRACT: Estimating the fraction of dementia cases in a population attributable to a risk factor or combination of risk factors (the population attributable fraction (PAF)) informs the design and choice of dementia risk-reduction activities. It is directly relevant to dementia prevention policy and practice. Current methods employed widely in the dementia literature to combine PAFs for multiple dementia risk factors assume a multiplicative relationship between factors and rely on subjective criteria to develop weightings for risk factors. In this paper we present an alternative approach to calculating the PAF based on sums of individual risk. It incorporates individual risk factor interrelationships and enables a range of assumptions about the way in which multiple risk factors will combine to affect dementia risk. Applying this method to global data demonstrates that the previous estimate of 40% is potentially too conservative an estimate of modifiable dementia risk and would necessitate subadditive interaction between risk factors. We calculate a plausible conservative estimate of 55.7% (95% confidence interval: 55.2, 56.1) based on additive risk factor interaction.

SUBMITTER: Welberry HJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10558200 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Have We Been Underestimating Modifiable Dementia Risk? An Alternative Approach for Calculating the Combined Population Attributable Fraction for Modifiable Dementia Risk Factors.

Welberry Heidi J HJ Tisdell Christopher C CC Huque Md Hamidul MH Jorm Louisa R LR

American journal of epidemiology 20231001 10

Estimating the fraction of dementia cases in a population attributable to a risk factor or combination of risk factors (the population attributable fraction (PAF)) informs the design and choice of dementia risk-reduction activities. It is directly relevant to dementia prevention policy and practice. Current methods employed widely in the dementia literature to combine PAFs for multiple dementia risk factors assume a multiplicative relationship between factors and rely on subjective criteria to d ...[more]

PMID: 37326043

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceIdentifying modifiable risk factors that are associated with dementia burden across racial and ethnic groups in the population can yield insights into the potential effectiveness of interventions in preventing dementia and reducing disparities.ObjectiveTo calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia associated with 12 established modifiable risk factors for all US adults, as well as separately by race and ethnicity.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used survey data from nationally representative samples of US adults. PAFs were calculated using relative risks and prevalence estimates for 12 risk factors. Relative risks were taken from meta-analyses, as reported in a 2020 systematic review. Prevalence estimates for risk factors were derived from nationally representative cross-sectional survey data collected between 2011 and 2018. Combined PAFs were adjusted for risk factor communality using weights derived from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (1987-2018). Analyses were conducted May through October 2021.ExposuresLow education, hearing loss, traumatic brain injury, hypertension, excessive alcohol consumption, obesity, smoking, depression, social isolation, physical inactivity, diabetes, and air pollution.Main outcomes and measuresPAF for each dementia risk factor, a combined PAF, and the decrease in the number of prevalent dementia cases in 2020 that would be expected given a 15% proportional decrease in each exposure.ResultsAmong all US adults, an estimated 41.0% (95% CI, 22.7%-55.9%) of dementia cases were attributable to 12 risk factors. A 15% proportional decrease in each risk factor would reduce dementia prevalence in the population by an estimated 7.3% (95% CI, 3.7%-10.9%). The estimated PAF was greater for Black and Hispanic than it was for White and Asian individuals. The greatest attributable fraction of dementia cases was observed for hypertension (PAF, 20.2%; 95% CI, 6.3%-34.4%), obesity (PAF, 20.9%; 95% CI, 13.0%-28.8%), and physical inactivity (PAF, 20.1%; 95% CI, 9.1%-29.6%). These factors were also highest within each racial and ethnic group, although the proportions varied.Conclusions and relevanceA large fraction of dementia cases in the US were associated with potentially modifiable risk factors, especially for Black and Hispanic individuals. Targeting and reducing these risk factors may curb the projected rise in dementia cases over the next several decades.

Project description:This study aimed to estimate potential reductions in case incidence of colorectal cancer attributable to the modifiable risk factors such as alcohol consumption, overweight and physical inactivity amongst the Malaysian population.Gender specific population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for colorectal cancer in Malaysia were estimated for the three selected risk factors (physical inactivity, overweight, and alcohol consumptions). Exposure prevalence were sourced from a large-scale national representative survey. Risk estimates of the relationship between the exposure of interest and colorectal cancer were obtained from published meta-analyses. The overall PAF was then estimated, using the 2013 national cancer incidence data from the Malaysian Cancer Registry.Overall, the mean incidence rate for colorectal cancer in Malaysia from 2008 to 2013 was 21.3 per 100,000 population, with the mean age of 61.6 years (±12.7) and the majority were men (56.6%). Amongst 369 colorectal cancer cases in 2013, 40 cases (20 men, 20 women), 10 cases (9 men, 1 woman) or 20 cases (16 men,4 women) would be prevented, if they had done physical exercises, could reduce their body weight to normal level or avoided alcohol consumption, assuming that these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. It was estimated that 66 (17.8%;66/369) colorectal cancer cases (42 men, 24 women) who had all these three risk factors for the last 10 years would have been prevented, if they could control these three risk factors through effective preventive measures.Findings suggest that approximately 18% of colorectal cancer cases in Malaysia would be prevented through appropriate preventive measures such as doing regular physical exercises, reducing their body weight to normal level and avoiding alcohol consumption, if these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. Scaling-up nationwide public health campaigns tailored to increase physical activity, controlling body weight within normal limits and avoid alcohol intake are recommended. Future studies with other site-specific cancers and additional risk factors are needed.

Project description:Numerous risk factors for mental disorders have been identified. However, we do not know how many disorders we could prevent and to what extent by modifying these risk factors. This study quantifies the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of potentially modifiable risk factors for mental disorders. We conducted a PRISMA 2020-compliant (Protocol: https://osf.io/hk2ag ) meta-umbrella systematic review (Web of Science/PubMed/Cochrane Central Register of Reviews/Ovid/PsycINFO, until 05/12/2021) of umbrella reviews reporting associations between potentially modifiable risk factors and ICD/DSM mental disorders, restricted to highly convincing (class I) and convincing (class II) evidence from prospective cohorts. The primary outcome was the global meta-analytical PAF, complemented by sensitivity analyses across different settings, the meta-analytical Generalised Impact Fraction (GIF), and study quality assessment (AMSTAR). Seven umbrella reviews (including 295 meta-analyses and 547 associations) identified 28 class I-II risk associations (23 risk factors; AMSTAR: 45.0% high-, 35.0% medium-, 20.0% low quality). The largest global PAFs not confounded by indication were 37.84% (95% CI = 26.77-48.40%) for childhood adversities and schizophrenia spectrum disorders, 24.76% (95% CI = 13.98-36.49%) for tobacco smoking and opioid use disorders, 17.88% (95% CI = not available) for job strain and depression, 14.60% (95% CI = 9.46-20.52%) for insufficient physical activity and Alzheimer's disease, 13.40% (95% CI = 7.75-20.15%) for childhood sexual abuse and depressive disorders, 12.37% (95% CI = 5.37-25.34%) for clinical high-risk state for psychosis and any non-organic psychotic disorders, 10.00% (95% CI = 5.62-15.95%) for three metabolic factors and depression, 9.73% (95% CI = 4.50-17.30%) for cannabis use and schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and 9.30% (95% CI = 7.36-11.38%) for maternal pre-pregnancy obesity and ADHD. The GIFs confirmed the preventive capacity for these factors. Addressing several potentially modifiable risk factors, particularly childhood adversities, can reduce the global population-level incidence of mental disorders.

Project description:BackgroundKawasaki disease is an acute, febrile, systemic vasculitis of children that primarily affects medium-sized blood vessels with a tropism for the coronary arteries. Although the etiological factors remain unknown, infections have been suggested as the trigger of Kawasaki disease. We sought to calculate the fraction of Kawasaki disease potentially attributable to seasonal infections.MethodsThis cohort study used a population-based time series analysis from the French hospitalisation database (Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d'Information), which includes all inpatients admitted to any public or private hospital in France. We included all children aged 0-17 years hospitalised for Kawasaki disease in France over 13 years. The monthly incidence of Kawasaki disease per 10,000 children over time was analysed by a quasi-Poisson regression model. The model accounted for seasonality by using harmonic terms (a pair of sines and cosines with 12-month periods). The circulation of eight common seasonal pathogens (adenovirus, influenza, metapneumovirus, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, norovirus, rhinovirus, rotavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, and Streptococcus pneumonia) over the same period was included in the model to analyse the fraction of Kawasaki disease potentially attributable to each pathogen. Infections were identified on the basis of polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen testing in hospital laboratories.FindingsBetween Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2019, we included 10,337 children with Kawasaki disease and 442,762 children with the selected infectious diseases. In the Kawasaki disease cohort, the median age [IQR] was 2 [0-4] years, 6164 [59.6%] were boys. Adenovirus infection was potentially responsible for 24.4% [21.5-27.8] (p < 0.001) of Kawasaki diseases, Norovirus for 6.7% [1.3-11.2] (p = 0.002), and RSV 4.6% [1.2-7.8] (p = 0.022). Sensitivity analyses found similar results.InterpretationThis cohort study of data from a comprehensive national hospitalisation database indicated that approximately 35% of Kawasaki diseases was potentially attributable to seasonal infections.FundingNone.

Project description:Data on updated hyperuricemia prevalence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China, which is one of the world-class urban agglomerations, is sparse. Overweight/obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking and sedentary behavior are modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for elevated serum uric acid (SUA), but their population attributable fractions (PAFs) for hyperuricemia is still unclear. Using baseline data from the BTH Physical Examination General Population Cohort, we calculated the crude- and adjusted-prevalence of hyperuricemia based on the 30,158 participants aged 18-80 years. Hyperuricemia was defined as SUA >420 μmol/L in men and >360 μmol/L in women, or currently use of uric acid lowering drugs. Overweight/obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking and sedentary behavior were considered as MRFs and their adjusted PAFs were estimated. The prevalence of hyperuricemia was 19.37%, 27.72% in men and 10.69% in women. The PAFs and 95% confidence intervals for overweight, obesity were 16.25% (14.26-18.25%) and 12.08% (11.40-12.77%) in men, 13.95% (12.31-15.59%) and 6.35% (5.97-6.74%) in women, respectively. Alcohol consumption can explain 4.64% (2.72-6.56%) hyperuricemia cases in men, but with no statistical significance in women. Cigarette smoking contributed to 3.15% (1.09-5.21%) cases in men, but a much lower fraction in women (0.85%, 0.49-1.22%). Compared with sedentary time <2 h per day, the PAFs of 2-4 h, 4-6 h, and more than 6 h per day were 3.14% (1.34-4.93%), 6.72% (4.44-8.99%) and 8.04% (4.95-11.13%) in men, respectively. Sedentary time was not found to be associated with hyperuricemia in women. These findings concluded that hyperuricemia is prevalent in this representative Chinese adult general population with substantial sex difference. Four MRFs (overweight/obesity, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking and sedentary behavior) accounted for a notable proportion of hyperuricemia cases. The PAF estimations enable the exploration of the expected proportion of hyperuricemia cases that could be prevented if the MRFs were removed, which warrants the public health significance of life-style intervention.

Dataset Information

Have We Been Underestimating Modifiable Dementia Risk? An Alternative Approach for Calculating the Combined Population Attributable Fraction for Modifiable Dementia Risk Factors.

Publications

Have We Been Underestimating Modifiable Dementia Risk? An Alternative Approach for Calculating the Combined Population Attributable Fraction for Modifiable Dementia Risk Factors.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets