A simple method for joint evaluation of skill in directional forecasts of multiple variables.

ABSTRACT: Forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are almost always made simultaneously by the same organizations, presented together, and used together in policy analyses and decision-makings. It is therefore important to know whether the forecasters are skillful enough to forecast the future values of those variables. Here a method for joint evaluation of skill in directional forecasts of multiple variables is introduced. The method is simple to use and does not rely on complicated assumptions required by the conventional statistical methods for measuring accuracy of directional forecast. The data on GDP growth and inflation forecasts of three organizations from Thailand, namely, the Bank of Thailand, the Fiscal Policy Office, and the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Counci

SUBMITTER: Sitthiyot T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10558991 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature