The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.

ABSTRACT: To reduce the consequences of infectious disease outbreaks, the timely implementation of public health measures is crucial. Currently used early-warning systems are highly context-dependent and require a long phase of model building. A proposed solution to anticipate the onset or termination of an outbreak is the use of so-called resilience indicators. These indicators are based on the generic theory of critical slowing down and require only incidence time series. Here we assess the potential for this approach to contribute to outbreak anticipation. We systematically reviewed studies that used resilience indicators to predict outbreaks or terminations of epidemics. We identified 37 studies meeting the inclusion criteria: 21 using simulated data and 16 real-world data. 36 out of 37 studies

SUBMITTER: Delecroix C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10564242 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature